U.S. Domestic Migration 2024-2025: Gains in the South and Mountain West, Declines in the Northeast and West Coast

SmartAsset’s analysis of Census Bureau data shows that between July 1, 2024 and July 1, 2025 the nation’s largest population gains were concentrated in the South and Mountain West. South Carolina led with a +1.46 % increase, followed by Idaho (+1.44 %), North Carolina (+1.32 %), Texas (+1.25 %), and Utah (+1.03 %). By contrast, five states posted declines: Vermont (-0.3 %), Hawaii (-0.2 %), West Virginia (-0.07 %), New Mexico (-0.06 %), and California (-0.02 %). The overall U.S. population growth slowed to below 1 % for the year.

Newsweek

The Missouri Economic Research and Information Center (MERIC) ranked the states with the steepest population losses among the nation’s most expensive places to live. Hawaii topped MERIC’s cost-of-living index with a score of 184.8 (about 85 % above the national average). California, Alaska, and New York also appeared in MERIC’s top-ten most costly states. SmartAsset notes that high housing, grocery, and utility costs, combined with job-market conditions, appear to be prompting moves to lower-cost regions. The analysis also highlights an aging trend in New England: Maine, New Hampshire, and Vermont have median ages of 45, 44, and 44, respectively, with large shares of residents 65 +. Younger residents are leaving these states for urban centers such as Boston or New York.

Newsweek

Redfin data cited by SmartAsset indicates that Vermont’s median home price fell 2 % year-over-year to $423,674 in June, slightly above the national median of $408,776. California’s median home price rose 2 % to $777,566 in the same month, despite its modest population loss. The report suggests that shrinking populations could ease housing pressure in high-cost markets, potentially improving affordability for remaining residents.

Newsweek

SmartAsset warns that states experiencing both population loss and rapid aging—exemplified by Vermont—may face a shrinking labor force, threatening future economic growth. Conversely, the South recorded an increase in residents under 18 over the past five years, positioning it as the only region with a growing youth cohort. A Congressional Budget Office projection notes that U.S. deaths are expected to exceed births by 2030, underscoring the strategic advantage of younger, expanding populations such as Texas, which could overtake California as the nation’s most populous state.

Newsweek

If current trends persist, Texas’s continued growth may displace California at the top of the population hierarchy. Meanwhile, states with high cost-of-living pressures and aging demographics may see further out-migration, reshaping regional labor markets and housing dynamics across the United States.

Newsweek