Crowley Holds Narrow Lead Over Tiffany in First Post-Primary Wisconsin Governor Poll

Incumbent Democratic Governor Tony Evers is retiring, leaving an open seat in the swing state. In the August primaries, Milwaukee County Executive David Crowley narrowly defeated Democratic-socialist state Representative Francesca Hong by less than half a percentage point, while Republican Congressman Tom Tiffany, backed by former President Donald Trump, secured the GOP nomination.

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• Platform Communications poll (survey of 500 likely voters August 12-13, 2026) shows Crowley at 48 % and Tiffany at 44 %, a four-point lead. Crowley’s net favorability is +17 (43 % positive, 26 % negative); Tiffany’s net favorability is -5 (38 % positive, 43 % negative).

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• GBAO poll (800 likely voters July 30-August 3, 2026) records Crowley 47 % vs. Tiffany 44 %, a three-point lead.

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• RMG Research/Napolitan News Service poll (800 registered voters July 20-24, 2026) also places Crowley ahead 46 % to 43 %.

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• Prediction-market odds give Crowley a 75 % chance of winning on Kalshi and 78 % on Polymarket.

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Tiffany’s campaign released an attack ad dubbing Crowley “Data Center David Crowley,” criticizing his support for a tax incentive and his remarks about making Wisconsin a national AI-data-center hub. Crowley’s campaign counters that local communities should decide on data-center projects, insisting on safeguards such as 100 % renewable energy, full coverage of infrastructure costs, and a ban on nondisclosure agreements.

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Strategist David Axelrod warned on July 23 that a Democratic loss could jeopardize a potential House pickup and install an “election-denying, Freedom Caucus member” as governor ahead of the 2028 election, underscoring Wisconsin’s pivotal role in national politics.

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• “Wisconsin is still closely divided, but Democrats have performed well in recent statewide races. Crowley starts the general election in a solid position,” — Henrik Schatzinger, a professor of political science at Ripon College

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