Shifting Control of the Strait of Hormuz Amid Intensified Shipping Reroutes

In recent weeks, the United States’ naval presence has outpaced Iran’s ability to dominate the Strait of Hormuz. Data from ship-tracking firm Kpler show that more than 80 % of vessel transits have used the UN-authorized Omani route along the north coast of Oman, a channel Iran publicly opposes. Iran has continued to attack dozens of ships attempting the traditional strait passage, yet most tankers now rely on U.S. protection to cross the waterway.

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The surge in Omani-route traffic marks a sharp reversal from a month earlier, when Kpler recorded virtually no shipments on that path. Because ships are avoiding Iran’s preferred lane, Tehran has been unable to levy the tolls it collected in the spring. Dan Pickering, founder and chief investment officer at Pickering Energy Partners, notes that “Iran’s request to collect tolls is something that most Middle East folks don’t want to do and haven’t been doing.” Gulf states—including Kuwait, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates—have chartered Very Large Crude Carriers (VLCCs) to move oil through the strait before transferring it to safer tankers in the Gulf of Oman, often disabling transponders for weeks to evade Iranian attacks.

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Energy Secretary Chris Wright reported that combined oil transits through the strait and the rerouted Omani channel reached roughly 15 million barrels per day over a recent week, approaching the pre-war average of 20 million barrels per day. President Donald Trump subsequently declared that the United States has “total control over the strait,” a claim contested by analysts who point to Iran’s ongoing attacks and still-reduced oil flows. Iran and Oman are reportedly holding talks to restore freedom of navigation without U.S. involvement, a development that has drawn Trump’s criticism.

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• “It increasingly looks like Iran has at least partially lost control of the strait,” — Homayoun Falakshahi, head of crude oil analysis at Kpler

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• “If their goal is to be ‘in charge,’ then I’d say they were never completely in control to start with,” — Dan Pickering, founder and chief investment officer at Pickering Energy Partners

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• “I would take all the information and headlines ‘under advisement,’” — Andy Lipow, president of Lipow Oil Associates

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The future of navigation through the Strait of Hormuz remains uncertain. While U.S. naval patrols continue to secure a majority of oil shipments, Iran’s capacity to reassert toll collection and direct control hinges on the outcome of its talks with Oman and the broader geopolitical response to the shifting shipping patterns.

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