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NOAA Raises El Niño Chance to 95% for 2026 Winter

8/19/2026

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Story summary
  • NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center raised the chance of an El Niño to 95% for October-December 2026.
  • The August RONI forecast puts the median October-December sea-surface temperature anomaly at +2.66 °C.
  • The CPC outlook expects above-normal temperatures in the West and East, wetter conditions in the South, and drier conditions in the Northwest.
  • Meteorologist Jonathan Erdman says the winter could be warmer in Plains and Midwest while the South stays wetter, raising tornado risk.