Trump’s Approval Ratings Plunge to Historic Lows Amid Midterm Countdown

A model compiled by *The Economist* from YouGov data shows that only three states register a net positive approval of President Donald Trump: Wyoming (+14), Idaho (+9) and West Virginia (+6). All other states and the District of Columbia register net disapproval, with the District at –83, followed by Vermont (–50), Maryland (–50), Hawaii (–48) and Washington (–42). The map reflects a sharp partisan divide, with higher approval in reliably Republican states and deeper disapproval in states that supported former Vice President Kamala Harris in 2024. *(Source 1)*

Newsweek

• Arkansas poll (Talk Business & Politics–Hendrix College). Among 1,217 likely voters, 53 % disapprove of Trump’s overall job performance and 46 % approve. Independent voters are especially hostile, with 70 % disapproving; 65 % of them express strong disapproval. *(Sources 3-4, 7)*

Poll: Trump gets low marks for job performance

• Reuters/Ipsos survey. Of 1,166 respondents, 33 % approve and 64 % disapprove, tying the low of Trump’s first term. *(Source 11)*

The Hill

• Financial Times/Focaldata poll. Conducted with 1,913 registered voters, it found 35 % approval and 55 % disapproval. *(Source 8)*

Forbes

• Nate Silver tracker (mid-July). Shows a net approval of –20.6 % (38 % approval, 58.8 % disapproval), a record low for the second term. *(Source 8)*

Forbes

• AP-NORC poll (late July). Recorded 33 % approval, eight points below Trump’s July 2025 first-term level. *(Source 8)*

Forbes

• Quinnipiac poll (late July). Among 963 registered voters, 32 % approved of Trump overall, while 66 % disapproved of his handling of the Iran war; 76 % of Republicans still approved his job performance. *(Source 9)*

Forbes

All 435 House seats and roughly one-third of the Senate will be contested. Historically, the president’s party loses seats in midterms; Trump’s low standing could pressure GOP candidates to distance themselves from the White House or risk penalization by independent voters. Redistricting battles—such as Texas Republicans adopting maps urged by Trump to add five potential House seats and California voters approving a Democratic-favored map—illustrate how national approval intertwines with local strategies. Decision-Desk HQ projects a 66 % chance that Democrats will retake the House and a 45 % chance of capturing the Senate. *(Sources 2, 12)*

NewsweekPoll: Trump gets low marks for job performance The Hill

The White House, through spokesperson Davis Ingle, framed the November 5, 2024 election—as nearly 80 million Americans voted for Trump—as a mandate for the administration’s agenda, emphasizing job creation, inflation control and housing affordability. President Trump, addressing the Iran conflict, defended higher gasoline prices as a necessary trade-off to prevent Iran from acquiring a nuclear weapon, urging the public to accept a modest increase in fuel costs. *(Sources 1, 11)*

The Hill

• Approval percentages differ across surveys. Reuters/Ipsos reports 33 % approval, while the Financial Times/Focaldata poll shows 35 %; Nate Silver’s tracker indicates a net approval of –20.6 % rather than a simple split.

Forbes

• Issue-specific ratings vary. In the Arkansas poll, disapproval of the economy stands at 55 % and of the Iran war at 57 %; the Quinnipiac poll records 66 % disapproval of the Iran war nationally.

Forbes

• Longitudinal data beyond August 2026 are absent, leaving uncertainty about whether the declines will persist through the November elections.

Newsweek