Full Breakdown
Cuba’s Nearshore Alliances Prompt U.S. Security Alarm
8/20/2026, 1:55:18 AM
AFPI Report Flags Cuba as Nearshore Security Threat
The America First Policy Institute’s report *The Dictatorship Next Door: Cuba and the Fight for the Western Hemisphere* warns that Cuba’s growing ties with Russia, China and Iran give U.S. adversaries a strategic foothold only 90 miles from Florida. homeland.
Background: Economic Crisis and Sanctions
Cuba is enduring one of the most severe economic and political crises in its modern history. Power outages exceeding 20 hours a day were reported in most provinces in August 2026, crippling food production, transportation and tourism. A July 7, 2026, Human Rights Watch investigation documented severe shortages of food and medicine, prolonged blackouts, water shortages and deteriorating living conditions. The Trump administration’s Jan. 29, 2026, executive order labeled Cuba an “unusual and extraordinary threat” and expanded sanctions that restrict oil supplies and other economic levers.
Data & Statistics
- Proximity: Cuba lies roughly 90 miles from Florida.
- Chinese signals sites: A June 18, 2026, Center for Strategic and International Studies analysis identified four Cuban locations capable of supporting signals-intelligence collection, several with possible links to China.
- Cuban fighters in Ukraine: A U.S. State Department cable dated Oct. 5, 2025, estimated that 1,000 to 5,000 Cubans were fighting alongside Russian forces in Ukraine; the figure is contested.
- Power outages: Outages of more than 20 hours per day were reported across most provinces in August 2026.
Official Statements & Responses
She clarified that the report does not call for new American bases but recommends expanded overflight rights, cooperative security locations and stronger regional partnerships to maintain “permanent and persistent… American capability.” President Donald Trump’s Jan. 29, 2026, executive order accused Havana of hosting foreign military and intelligence capabilities and of deep cooperation with Chinese and Russian signals-intelligence services.
Criticism & Opposition
Cuba analyst Andy Gomez argues that the United States’ “maximum pressure” campaign is harming the Cuban people rather than the regime, noting that sanctions exacerbate shortages of food, fuel and medicine. Gomez contends that the U.S. has not articulated a clear, phased transition plan for Cuba, contrasting the situation with the more defined strategy for Venezuela.
Conflicting Reports & Gaps
- Ukrainian combatants: The State Department’s 1,000-to-5,000 estimate of Cubans fighting for Russia is described as “contested” by other sources, indicating uncertainty about the exact number.
- Iranian involvement: Ford Maldonado admitted that evidence of Iran’s activities in Cuba was “a little bit trickier” and less substantive than that for China and Russia, leaving a gap in the assessment of Tehran’s role.
Verbatim Quotes
- “They are a hostile communist regime that is only 90 miles from Florida,” — Ford Maldonado, report author
- “The objective is just permanent and persistent... American capability,” — Ford Maldonado, report author
- “I don’t think he is going to change,” — S. Rep. Mario Diaz-Balart
- “If nothing happens in Cuba in the next six months, the window is closed.” — Andy Gomez, cuba analyst
