Trump Cites Unusual Census Bureau Report to Claim Non-citizen Voting in 2020 Election

A Census Bureau brief posted online draws on a 2020 commercial voter file and federal records to examine 128 million voter records. It concludes that “over 24,000 non-citizens voted illegally,” about 0.02 % of the total. Trump used the claim to urge Congress to pass the SAVE America Act, a voting-restriction bill tied to the upcoming midterms.

Talking Points Memo

Trump has repeatedly asserted the 2020 election was “rigged,” despite no evidence of widespread fraud. The report follows a pattern of the former president and allies promoting statistics suggesting large-scale non-citizen voting. Earlier, the Department of Homeland Security said it had identified 250,000 non-citizens on public voter rolls in four states, without disclosing its methodology.

Talking Points Memo

The brief reports 24,000 non-citizen votes out of 128 million examined, roughly 0.02 % of total votes, and lists 159.9 million ballots cast—higher than Pew Research’s 158.4 million figure for 2020. It provides no author, department attribution, or discussion of statistical variance or bias. The analysis relies on a private voter file matched to federal data, a process critics say is vulnerable to error because voter records lack unique identifiers and citizenship data are often outdated. The Census does not collect citizenship status in the decennial census, limiting its ability to create a definitive “citizenship records” file.

NPR

President Trump framed the numbers as proof of illegal voting and a justification for stricter voting laws. Commerce Department Secretary Howard Lutnick endorsed the report on X. Spokespeople for the Census Bureau, AFPI, and the White House declined comment. A current Census employee, who asked not to be named, confirmed the work was not performed by career civil servants and that AFPI affiliates participated.

NPR

Election-integrity experts challenged the report’s credibility. David Becker, executive director of the Center for Election Innovation & Research, called the analysis “laughable.” Amy O’Hara, former chief of the bureau’s Center for Administrative Records Research, noted the brief lacks any measures of variance or discussion of bias. Beth Jarosz of Georgetown’s Massive Data Institute said the report lacks transparency, and Omar Noureldin of Common Cause emphasized that the Census does not collect citizenship status, making definitive matches impossible. Mark Mather of the Population Reference Bureau warned of a chilling effect on the use of administrative data.

Talking Points Memo

• “This analysis is laughable. Census data cannot reliably be matched to voter data,” — David Becker

NPR

• “This brief lacks any sort of measures of variance or discussion of bias,” — Amy O’Hara

NPR

• “The 2020 Census did not collect citizenship status, and the Census Bureau does not have a comprehensive individual ‘citizenship records’ file to definitively match against voter rolls,” — Omar Noureldin

Talking Points Memo

The brief’s ballot total (159.9 million) conflicts with Pew Research’s count of 158.4 million. The report provides no definition of “high confidence,” no author attribution, and no citation of the specific federal records used, leaving key methodological details undisclosed.

Talking Points Memo

The episode raises questions about the Census Bureau’s nonpartisan reputation as it prepares for the 2030 census, which will require broad public participation. Critics argue that publishing unverified claims of “election crime” could undermine trust in official statistics and deter future data collection. The analysis also fuels legislative pushes for stricter voting rules linking immigration enforcement to election integrity.

NPR

Lawmakers continue to debate the SAVE America Act and other voting-restriction measures, while the Census Bureau faces scrutiny over its role in political debates.

NPR