Full Breakdown
Median Strategies’ Fake Polls Prompt Calls for Election-Integrity Safeguards
8/21/2026, 5:23:54 AM
Core Event
In August 2026, polling outfit Median Strategies announced that the poll results it had released for two high-profile races were fabricated. The firm had published a poll showing Los Angeles Mayor Karen Bass leading City Councilmember Nithya Raman by nearly 12 points in the November 3 runoff, and another poll indicating Wisconsin Democratic gubernatorial candidate Francesca Hong ahead of opponent David Crowley by more than 20 points. Both releases listed a sample of 560 Los Angeles voters surveyed between July 30 and August 5 with a 4.1 percent margin of error. Median Strategies subsequently closed its polling project.
Background & Context
The incident arrived amid a surge of new pollsters—about 30 new firms had appeared in the year, complicating efforts by journalists and aggregators to assess methodological quality. While most new pollsters produce legitimate surveys, the Median Strategies case showed how a fabricated poll can quickly gain traction when amplified by candidates and media outlets.
Data & Statistics
- Los Angeles mayoral poll: 12-point Bass lead; 560 respondents; 4.1 % margin of error.
- Wisconsin gubernatorial poll: Hong shown with a 20-plus-point lead over Crowley; Hong ultimately lost the primary by less than one point.
Official Statements & Responses
- Nithya Raman campaign: Condemned Bass’s promotion of the poll, accusing the mayor’s team of failing to vet the source and demanding accurate communication with voters.
Why It Matters
The rapid spread of the fabricated poll across social-media aggregators and local news illustrates the vulnerability of election information to unverified sources. Analysts have warned that such misinformation could sway public perception and affect thinly traded election prediction markets where modest data shifts can move contract prices.
Conflicting Reports & Gaps
- Prediction-market motive: Los Angeles Times reporter Noah Goldberg cited speculation that the poll might have been intended to manipulate betting markets, a theory he described as “circulating online” but not proven.
- Expert reaction: Nate Silver noted a spike in contract prices after the poll’s release, emphasizing the sensitivity of prediction markets to new data. Neither Median Strategies nor any candidate confirmed a market-manipulation intent.
Verbatim Quotes
- “It is the latest example of an administration that too often struggles to get the basics right — from posting about a pothole repair before the pothole was fixed to repeatedly giving Boyle Heights residents a Lineage cleanup deadline that the company now disputes,” — Liz Garcia, Raman campaign spokesperson
- “This poll was reported on by a news outlet,” — Alex Stack, Bass campaign spokesperson
What’s Next
Median Strategies’ website indicates the firm will not issue further polls. Election officials in California and Wisconsin have signaled heightened scrutiny of poll sources, and campaign teams have pledged more rigorous vetting of external data before public dissemination.
