Full Breakdown
Fake Polls Spread Fast: The Median Strategies Experiment
8/21/2026, 12:19:14 PM
Core Event – Fabricated Polls Released and Retracted
A 21-year-old creator launched the anonymous site Median Strategies, publishing fabricated polls for races in Wisconsin, Nevada and California. The polls showed Los Angeles Mayor Karen Bass ahead of challenger Nithya Raman by roughly 12 points, Francesca Hong leading the Wisconsin gubernatorial primary by more than 20 points, and Nevada Governor Joe Lombardo ahead by five points. After media inquiries, the site shut down, removed the data and posted a statement describing the effort as a “short-term social experiment” examining how unverified polling can enter the political information ecosystem.
Background & Context – Motivation from a Prior Poll Miss
Shocked by a previous poll discrepancy, the creator wanted to test whether a single individual could generate fake polling that would still be picked up by campaigns and the press.
Data & Statistics – Poll Figures and Reach
- Los Angeles mayoral poll: claimed 560 respondents surveyed between July 30 and early August, with a 4.1 % margin of error; reported Bass at ~12-point advantage.
- Wisconsin gubernatorial poll: suggested Hong leading by >20 points; she later lost the primary.
- Nevada governor poll: placed Lombardo ahead by five points ahead of the November general election.
- The Median Strategies X account had about 20 followers at the time of exposure.
Official Statements & Responses – Organizations and Campaigns
- Median Strategies’ website said the project received no compensation, was not funded or directed by any campaign, party, media outlet or “outside entity,” and that no one involved traded on prediction markets.
- Raman’s campaign criticized Bass’s team for sharing the poll without vetting the source, calling the incident an administrative misstep.
- Charles Franklin, poll director for Marquette Law School, called the fake poll “fraud” and warned of potential effects on betting markets, though he noted any impact appeared minimal.
Criticism & Opposition – Expert and Industry Reactions
Political consultants and poll experts said fabricated data harms professional credibility. Franklin said the fraud “upsets” pollsters and misleads readers, while the American Association of Political Consultants argued that publishing fabricated survey data does not qualify as a legitimate social experiment.
Conflicting Reports & Gaps – Verification and Media Handling
Several reputable polling aggregators declined to include Median’s numbers because they could not verify the methodology, whereas a widely followed aggregator on X did share the Nevada poll. The discrepancy illustrates a gap in real-time verification standards across platforms.
Timeline – Key Dates
- August 9 – Median Strategies’ X account began posting, according to the Los Angeles Times.
- July 30 – early August – Period claimed for the Los Angeles voter survey.
- June 2 – Primary election in Los Angeles where Bass received 34 % and Raman 29 % of the vote; the fabricated poll had been cited during the runoff campaign.
- Mid-August – Media inquiries prompted the website’s shutdown and public statement.
Verbatim Quotes
- “I wanted to see if fake polls could really penetrate the ecosystem that easily,” — Rahil Prakash
- “I think my overall takeaway was that if you just make it look a bit pretty, it’s rather easy for it to spread,” — Rahil Prakash
