Story perspectives

CFTC roadmap targets event-contract rules after Kalshi injunction loss

8/21/2026

Summary

Selig Leads Reform

CFTC Chairman Michael Selig convened the Innovation Advisory Committee to debate prediction-market regulation.
The committee assembled over 30 members from Robinhood, Nasdaq, CME and other firms.
CME Group CEO Terry Duffy warned that 2,500 self-certifications since January 2025 could enable manipulation.
Robinhood CEO Vlad Tenev urged a closer review of “mention markets” that bet on public statements.
Michael Selig presented a three-part roadmap to tighten event-contract rules and improve consumer protection.

Summary

Oliver Rejects Injunction

Federal Judge Vernon Oliver rejected Kalshi’s emergency injunction, ruling Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) rules cannot override Connecticut gambling law.
Former SEC chief of staff Amanda Fischer warned prediction markets may violate state and tribal gambling sovereignty.
Nevada Gaming Control Board is seeking $120,000 daily fines from Kalshi for alleged non-compliance with a court order.
Over 20 lawsuits involve state regulators, tribal entities, and the CFTC over prediction-market contracts.

History

Historical Context

In 1993 the CFTC issued a no-action letter allowing the University of Iowa’s Iowa Electronic Markets to operate with limited trader caps, showing early federal tolerance for academic prediction markets. After the 2024 district-court ruling rejecting the CFTC’s “gaming” claim against Kalshi, Chair Michael S. Selig’s Innovation Advisory Committee renewed jurisdictional challenges, and Judge Vernon Oliver’s injunction denial echoes the federal-state gambling clash.

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Selig Leads Reform

CFTC Chairman Michael Selig convened the Innovation Advisory Committee to debate prediction-market regulation.
The committee assembled over 30 members from Robinhood, Nasdaq, CME and other firms.
CME Group CEO Terry Duffy warned that 2,500 self-certifications since January 2025 could enable manipulation.
Robinhood CEO Vlad Tenev urged a closer review of “mention markets” that bet on public statements.
Michael Selig presented a three-part roadmap to tighten event-contract rules and improve consumer protection.

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