Full Breakdown
The Second UN Security Council Straw Poll: Rodrigues Birkett Takes Narrow Lead
8/22/2026, 8:26:45 AM
Background & Context
The United Nations Security Council (UNSC) conducts informal, non-binding straw polls to gauge member-state support for candidates to succeed Secretary-General António Guterres, whose term ends on December 31 2026. Each of the 15 Council members can label candidates “encourage,” “discourage,” or “no opinion.” A nominee must eventually secure at least nine affirmative votes and avoid a veto from any of the five permanent members before the Council can recommend a candidate to the General Assembly.
Eight diplomats remain in the race: Guyana’s Ambassador Carolyn Rodrigues Birkett, Costa Rica’s Rebeca Grynspan (head of UNCTAD), Argentina’s Rafael Grossi (IAEA director-general), former Senegalese President Macky Sall, Uganda’s Olara Otunnu, Ecuador’s former UNGA President María Fernanda Espinosa, former Chilean President Michelle Bachelet, and Ivonne A-Baki (nominated by Tonga).
Data & Statistics
- Rodrigues Birkett: 8 encourage, 3 discourage, 4 no opinion.
- Grynspan: 7 encourage, 4 discourage, 4 no opinion.
- Grossi: 7 encourage, 6 discourage, 2 no opinion.
- Sall: 6 encourage, 7 discourage, 2 no opinion.
- Otunnu: 5 encourage, 5 discourage, 5 no opinion.
- Espinosa: 4 encourage, 3 discourage, 8 no opinion.
- Bachelet: 2 encourage, 6 discourage, 7 no opinion.
- A-Baki: 0 encourage, 8 discourage, 7 no opinion.
All fall short of the nine-vote threshold required for a formal recommendation.
Official Statements & Responses
Denmark’s UN ambassador Christina Lassen, the Council’s rotating president, said the body is still deciding when to hold the next poll. Russia’s UN ambassador Vassily Nebenzia warned that a deadlock could open the field to additional candidates. Israel’s UN ambassador Danny Danon stated that Israel will evaluate candidates based on their record and willingness to confront terrorism, antisemitism, and hypocrisy.
Criticism & Opposition
International Crisis Group’s Daniel Forti noted that the five permanent members may withhold preferences until later in the process, potentially limiting transparency. He suggested that the lack of a clear majority after two polls could encourage new entrants.
Conflicting Reports & Gaps
Most outlets report Rodrigues Birkett’s tally as eight “encourage” votes. The Guardian records her receiving nine “encourage,” two “discourage,” and four “no opinion” votes, placing her second to Grynspan in that account. The discrepancy highlights the limited public visibility of the secret ballot results and underscores the need for clearer reporting mechanisms.
What’s Next
Council members have indicated that another informal poll will be held later in August, with the process expected to continue for several weeks until a consensus emerges. Once a candidate secures the required nine votes and avoids a veto, the UNSC will forward the nomination to the UN General Assembly for formal confirmation.
Verbatim Quotes
- “It’s too early to have a consensus,” — council
- “If, for example — I’m speculating now — if there is a deadlock on any of the candidates we are seeing today, if nobody… flies, then I think that we may see other candidates as well,” — Vassily Nebenzia, Russia’s UN ambassador
- “There is a good chance that some nominees realize after (Friday’s) vote that their campaigns have reached the end of the road,” — Daniel Forti, International Crisis Group
- “Israel will evaluate the candidates based on their record and their willingness to stand up to terrorism, antisemitism, and hypocrisy,” — Danny Danon
