Full Breakdown
Pro Farmer Crop Tour Projects 2026 U.S. Corn Yield Below USDA Forecast, Soybeans Poised for Record
8/22/2026, 2:32:40 AM
Core Forecasts from the 2026 Crop Tour
Pro Farmer’s four-day Crop Tour, conducted by more than 100 scouts across 3,000 fields in seven Midwestern states, projects a 2026 corn harvest of 15.344 billion bushels at 173.2 bu/acre and soybean output of 4.572 billion bushels at 53.3 bu/acre.
Background & Context
USDA’s August 2026 projections listed a corn yield average of 180.7 bu/acre (16.013 bn bushels) and a soybean average of 52.7 bu/acre (4.52 bn bushels). Pro Farmer’s corn estimate is 7.5 bu/acre lower, while its soybean yield is 0.6 bu/acre higher.
Data & Statistics
| Crop | Pro Farmer | USDA August | Yield Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| Corn | 15.344 bn (173.2 bu/acre) | 16.013 bn (180.7 bu/acre) | –7.5 bu/acre |
| Soybeans | 4.572 bn (53.3 bu/acre) | 4.52 bn (52.7 bu/acre) | +0.6 bu/acre |
Pro Farmer allows a ±1 % variance, translating to 15.191-15.498 bn bushels of corn and 4.481-4.664 bn bushels of soybeans.
On-the-Ground Observations
- Early-season cold snap reduced seedling vigor and increased disease pressure.
- June rainfall of 5–10 inches in eastern Iowa, Illinois, and Indiana saturated soils during kernel-row development, limiting oxygen and curtailing ear formation.
- Ear counts fell in Ohio, Indiana, South Dakota, Nebraska, southwest Iowa, and west-central Iowa; grain length in Iowa dropped 3.27 % versus the prior year.
- Test-weight reductions eroded a yield buffer that had helped offset earlier issues.
- Soybean pod counts remained modest but were supported by adequate soil moisture.
Official Statements & Responses
Crop Tour leaders said the 2026 corn crop, while solid, cannot match 2025’s performance. Lane Akre contrasted the scouts’ field data with USDA’s farmer-survey approach, suggesting a downward USDA adjustment.
Conflicting Reports & Gaps
- Yield estimates: Pro Farmer’s corn average is 7.5 bu/acre lower than USDA’s August projection.
- Methodology divergence: Akre argued USDA relies on surveys lacking “objective data,” whereas Pro Farmer uses direct ear counts, grain length, and test-weight observations.
- Future USDA adjustment: Akre expects the September USDA report to align more closely with the Crop Tour findings; no official revision has been released.
Verbatim Quotes
- “What we saw throughout the week was a crop with solid potential, but also more variability and fewer bushels than appearances might suggest,” — Chip Flory, AgriTalk host
- “Everything is down from a year ago,” — Chip Flory
- “You throw, especially in eastern Iowa, Illinois, Indiana, 5, 6, 7, 10 inches of rain at it in the middle of June when we are developing kernel rows around,” — Emily Carolan
- “Ear counts were a problem in Ohio and Indiana, South Dakota, Nebraska, southwest Iowa, west-central Iowa,” — Chip Flory
- “While pod counts were consistently below last year’s historically high or record figures, soil moisture will help carry the crop through the end of the season, even if precipitation slows down,” — Lane Akre
What’s Next
Lane Akre indicated USDA’s September report is expected to incorporate the weather-related stress observed during the Crop Tour, potentially narrowing the gap between the two forecasts. No specific release date was provided.
