Goalkeeping Performance and Relegation Risk in the Premier League

Recent analysis of Premier League seasons shows a clear link between a goalkeeper’s shot-stopping ability and a club’s likelihood of relegation. Goalkeepers at the three clubs that dropped in the most recent campaign—West Ham, Wolverhampton Wanderers and Burnley—faced roughly twice as many shots on target as Arsenal’s David Raya, underscoring the defensive burden shouldered by teams fighting to stay up.

New York Times

While modern tactics have emphasized a keeper’s distribution and ability to play out from the back, the last few years have forced a re-balancing toward traditional shot-stopping. Early-career “technical” keepers who excelled in passing but struggled with physical pressure at inswinging corners have been exposed as liabilities, especially for lower-table sides that cannot rely on possession to shield their defence.

New York Times

Post-shot expected goals (PSxG) figures—a metric that adjusts for shot location and placement—reveal stark disparities.

New York Times

• Southampton’s Gavin Bazunu recorded the league’s worst PSxG performance in 2022-23, with the analysis estimating the club conceded 22 more goals than expected; the team finished bottom.

New York Times

• Leeds United’s Illan Meslier posted a similarly poor record, costing the club 12 extra goals and a second-bottom finish.

New York Times

• Leicester City’s Danny Ward added roughly 7 additional goals against, a threshold the author uses to define a “bad” goalkeeping season.

New York Times

The following season, six clubs fell below the –7 goal threshold, including Nottingham Forest (Matt Turner and Matz Sels) and Sheffield United (Wes Foderingham). By contrast, most Premier League keepers have posted “reasonable or good” PSxG numbers in recent campaigns, suggesting an overall improvement in shot-stopping quality.

New York Times

Bottom-half and newly promoted clubs have responded by investing in physically dominant keepers. Ipswich Town signed Dutch goalkeepers Kjell Scherpen (6 ft 9 in/206 cm) and Kayne van Oevelen (6 ft 6 in/198 cm), while Hull City paid £20 million for Greek international Konstantinos Tzolakis, noted for his saving ability. Coventry City acquired loanee Carl Rushworth, whose Championship record demonstrates strong traditional goalkeeping skills, and he is expected to debut against Arsenal.

New York Times

These moves reflect a shift away from the earlier emphasis on distribution-heavy keepers toward a renewed focus on preventing goals, especially for clubs where defensive margins are thin.

New York Times

All three promoted sides—Sunderland, Burnley and Leeds—have allocated significant funds to upgrade their goalkeeping ranks, indicating that clubs anticipate the continued importance of reliable shot-stoppers. As the new campaign begins, the performance of these newly signed keepers will likely influence which teams can avoid the relegation battle.

New York Times