Hormuz Oil Flow Remains Restricted Amid “Dark” Transits and U.S. Military Assistance

Since the war began, the Strait of Hormuz—through which roughly one-fifth of global oil and liquefied natural gas passes—has seen only single-digit vessel movements. Kpler data recorded five commodity vessels on a Saturday, none on the following Sunday, six on Tuesday (down from nine the day before) and no improvement by Wednesday. The temporary cease-fire expired in early July, and no new diplomatic talks have been scheduled.

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The collapse of the June 17 interim agreement and the expiration of the cease-fire have left the waterway under contested control. Iran has declared the strait closed until Washington meets its conditions, while the United States maintains a naval blockade of Iranian ports and escorts “dark” transits—ships that switch off AIS transponders—to protect commercial cargoes.

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• Vessel traffic: 5–6 vessels per day, far below the pre-war average of about 20 million barrels per day (bpd).

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• U.S. crude inventories: up 4.4 million barrels to 428.8 million barrels (EIA).

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• U.S. refinery utilization: 97.2 %.

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• WTI price (late Thursday): $86.31 per barrel, up 5.91 % for the week.

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• U.S. military-assisted shipments: more than 660 million barrels since early May (CENTCOM).

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• Private-sector estimates: Windward projects 5 million bpd in July, rising in August; the U.S. government has cited “about 10 million bpd” in recent weeks.

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President Donald Trump reiterated that no talks with Iran are scheduled and warned of economic consequences for any country aiding Iran. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced plans to outline further sanctions actions. Saudi Aramco resumed limited loadings inside the strait and offered cargoes via transfers off Fujairah, while Chinese firms have begun sourcing crude outside the Gulf. The U.S. Department of Energy, in coordination with the military, claims to maintain the best available data on regional oil flows.

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Greek-owned supertanker Kiku docked at Qatar’s Mesaieed terminal on July 25, entered the strait on July 31, switched off its AIS transponder, vanished, and reappeared on August 1 on the opposite side. The vessel later conducted a ship-to-ship transfer with Nave Electron off the UAE on August 7, then went dark again before resurfacing near Qatar later in the month. Roughly 80 % of traffic in the past two weeks operated without AIS signals, according to Kpler.

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U.S. Central Command estimates that 7 + million bpd have moved through Hormuz in recent weeks, while private monitor Windward reports 5 million bpd for July. Independent trackers such as Kpler rely on AIS data, which undercounts vessels that deliberately go dark. Satellite radar imagery shows vessels in the strait when AIS reports none, highlighting a measurement gap.

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Restricted flows keep global oil markets tight, sustaining elevated WTI and Brent premiums. Tight U.S. distillate inventories and high refinery utilization amplify price pressures on gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel, contributing to broader inflationary pressures for consumers. The “dark” transit strategy mitigates a complete supply collapse but adds environmental risk, as reduced transparency hampers spill monitoring in the narrow, congested waterway.

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The Treasury plans to detail additional sanctions actions later this week, and U.S. Central Command will continue escorting commercial vessels through the southern route along Oman’s coast. Monitoring of AIS-off transits and satellite imagery will remain critical for assessing actual oil volumes exiting the Gulf.

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