Full Breakdown
Michigan Senate and Gubernatorial Races: Older Voters Tilt Republican in AARP Poll
8/23/2026, 12:56:45 AM
Core Findings
A newly released AARP poll shows the U.S. Senate contest between Democrat Abdul El-Sayed and Republican former Rep. Mike Rogers essentially tied among all likely voters (48 % – 47 %). Among voters aged 50 plus, Rogers leads 52 % to 43 %. In the governor’s race, Democrat Jocelyn Benson holds a narrow overall lead (49 % – 44 %) but Republican Rep. John James edges Benson 48 % to 47 % among the 50-plus cohort. The poll also notes that 14 % of the electorate are “older swing voters” who do not vote straight-ticket, a group in which Rogers enjoys a 33-point advantage over El-Sayed.
Poll Methodology
The bipartisan polling team of Republican firm Fabrizio Ward and Democratic firm Impact Research fielded the survey from August 9 to August 11. A total of 877 likely Michigan voters were interviewed, with a margin of error of ±3.3 percentage points.
Age-Based Preferences
- Overall Senate race: El-Sayed 48 %, Rogers 47 %.
- Voters 50 plus: Rogers 52 %, El-Sayed 43 % (nine-point gap).
- Overall governor’s race: Benson 49 %, James 44 %.
- Voters 50 plus: James 48 %, Benson 47 % (one-point gap).
- Among older swing voters, Rogers leads El-Sayed by 33 points.
- 86 % of voters age 50-plus say they are “extremely motivated” to vote, versus 71 % of younger voters.
Implications for November Midterms
AARP analysts argue that the high motivation of older voters, combined with their preference for Republican Senate and gubernatorial candidates, could be decisive in the November midterms. The 14 % of older swing voters, who are less likely to follow party lines, represent a pivotal bloc that may swing the tight races.
Verbatim Quotes
- “Costs are rising, and older adults are concerned,” — Paula Cunningham, state director of AARP Michigan
- “When drilling down into older swing voters specifically — the segment of the Michigan electorate who are not straight-ticket Republican or Democratic voters — Rogers enjoys an even wider advantage, leading El-Sayed by 33 points,” — AARP's Miriam Cross
- “Eighty-six percent of voters age 50-plus say they are extremely motivated to vote, compared with 71% of voters under age 50,” — AARP's Kate Bridges. Of, michigan’s current secretary
- “That all suggests that older voters, especially the 14 percent who are not straight-ticket voters, could decide the outcome for candidates in the November midterms,” — Miriam Cross
