Surge in Strait of Hormuz Traffic Highlights Shifting Control Between the United States and Iran

Data from the UK Maritime Trade Operations centre recorded 103 ships entering and 89 exiting the Strait of Hormuz in the most recent seven-day period, a 27 % increase from the previous week but still only about 20 % of the pre-war daily average of 130-140 vessels. Kpler’s tracking shows that between August 1 and August 19 a total of 236 ships transited the waterway, including 112 vessels carrying crude, LPG or LNG. Of those, 21 openly used the Iranian-coast route, two formally used the Omani corridor, and the remaining ? 80 % either followed the UN-authorized Omani side or vanished from Automatic Identification System (AIS) tracking (“dark” traffic). The same period saw five vessels struck by Iranian projectiles, leaving two crew members injured or dead.

Al Jazeera (website)New York PostKpler: Maritime traffic slows through Strait of Hormuz Iran’s Grip On Strait Of Hormuz Weakens As Over 80% Of Ships Use Omani Route Strait of Hormuz traffic this week was 20% of pre-war average, though US says “oil is flowing” Strait of Hormuz traffic halves in a day as US-Iran peace talks stall

The conflict erupted on February 28 when the United States and Israel launched strikes on Iran, prompting Tehran to close the strait in early March and permit only “friendly” ships. A 60-day memorandum of understanding (MoU) between the United States and Iran was signed on June 17 2026 and expired without a settlement, after which the United States began escorting tankers through a US-backed southern corridor near Oman. The Omani route is authorized by the International Maritime Organization but is rejected by Iran, which insists on a northern lane hugging its coastline.

Iran’s Grip On Strait Of Hormuz Weakens As Over 80% Of Ships Use Omani Route

• ? 20 % of global seaborne oil historically passed through the strait.

New York Times

• Pre-war traffic: 130-140 vessels per day; August 1-19 2026: 236 vessels (? 12 per day).

Al Jazeera (website)

• ? 80 % of liquid-cargo ships used the Omani side or dark routes in the last two weeks.

Al Jazeera (website)

• Five ships were hit by Iranian fire in the past week; two crew members were injured or killed.

New York Post

• U.S. officials have claimed the protected corridor moves “15-20 tankers per night” and roughly 10 million barrels of oil daily, while independent Kpler analysis records only three to twelve crossings per day.

The Maritime Executive

Supreme National Security Council Secretary Mohsen Rezaei warned of an “earthquake-like” retaliation if the United States proceeds with new sanctions. U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth said the naval blockade would be sustained for an extended period. U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright reported that oil and product flows through the strait and adjacent pipelines amounted to about 15 million barrels per day in a recent week.

Homayoun Falakshahi, head of crude-oil analysis at Kpler, told CNN that “it increasingly looks like Iran has at least partially lost control of the strait.” Dan Pickering, founder of Pickering Energy Partners, argued the Omani route “absolutely makes the most sense” for avoiding Iranian tolls. Marc Ayoub, researcher and consultant, countered that “Iran is not losing control in the current status quo.”

Iran’s Grip On Strait Of Hormuz Weakens As Over 80% Of Ships Use Omani Route

U.S. officials claim the protected corridor moves up to 10 million barrels daily, yet Kpler’s satellite-radar data shows only three to twelve vessel crossings per day, highlighting a gap between official statements and independent measurements. The prevalence of dark traffic—vessels turning off AIS transponders—prevents precise determination of how many ships actually use the Omani side versus the Iranian side, leaving substantial uncertainty about the true distribution of oil flows.

The Maritime Executive