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NOAA Predicts Strong El Niño This Winter With 66% Chance

8/23/2026

Summary

NOAA Predicts El Niño

NOAA predicts a strong El Niño will develop this winter.
Crucial forecasts over 85% chance of El Niño conditions and about 45% chance of a Super El Niño.
NOAA gives a 66% chance the event will be strong or very strong by winter.
Met Office predicts 2026 will host the strongest El Niño in memory and 2027 may be the warmest year.
James Hansen notes the upper-300-m heat anomaly exceeds the 1997-98 Super El Niño.

Summary

El Niño Disrupts

India experiences below-average monsoon rains linked to the developing El Niño.
The Atlantic hurricane season is projected to be unusually quiet because El Niño suppresses storms.
Severe droughts are expected across South America and the West Pacific, threatening water supplies.
Agricultural experts warn El Niño could jeopardize global crop yields and food security.
Berkeley Earth’s Zeke Hausfather says confidence has risen that El Niño will set temperature records.

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NOAA Predicts El Niño

NOAA predicts a strong El Niño will develop this winter.
Crucial forecasts over 85% chance of El Niño conditions and about 45% chance of a Super El Niño.
NOAA gives a 66% chance the event will be strong or very strong by winter.
Met Office predicts 2026 will host the strongest El Niño in memory and 2027 may be the warmest year.
James Hansen notes the upper-300-m heat anomaly exceeds the 1997-98 Super El Niño.

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