Full Breakdown
Guyana’s Carolyn Rodrigues Birkett Leads Second UN Secretary-General Straw Poll
8/23/2026, 8:48:46 PM
Core Event – Second Informal Security Council Straw Poll
The United Nations Security Council held its second non-binding straw poll to gauge support for candidates to succeed Antonio Guterres. Sources said Guyana’s permanent representative, Carolyn Rodrigues Birkett, received the highest tally of “encourage” votes – eight – with three “discourage” votes and four “no opinion” votes. Costa Rica’s Rebeca Grynspan and Argentina’s Rafael Grossi each earned seven “encourage” votes; Grossi recorded six “discourage” votes, while Grynspan received four. The other declared candidates obtained fewer “encourage” votes, with Ivonne A-Baki receiving none and eight “discourage” votes.
Background & Context
Antonio Guterres, in office since 2017, will conclude his second term on December 31, 2026. Under Article 97 of the UN Charter, the secretary-general is appointed by the General Assembly after a recommendation from the Security Council. The informal straw polls, introduced in the early 1980s, let the 15-member Council anonymously label each candidate “encourage,” “discourage,” or “no opinion.” A formal recommendation requires at least nine “encourage” votes and no veto from any of the five permanent members. Regional rotation tradition suggests a Latin-American candidate may be favored.
Data & Statistics
- Rodrigues Birkett: 8 encourage, 3 discourage, 4 no opinion
- Grynspan: 7 encourage, 4 discourage, 4 no opinion
- Grossi: 7 encourage, 6 discourage, 2 no opinion
- Macky Sall: 6 encourage
- Olara Otunnu: 5 encourage
- María Fernanda Espinosa: 4 encourage
- Michelle Bachelet: 2 encourage
- Ivonne A-Baki: 0 encourage, 8 discourage
Official Statements & Responses
Israel’s ambassador to the UN, Danny Danon, said Israel will assess candidates based on their record on terrorism, antisemitism and perceived hypocrisy, though it has not endorsed any contender. Russia’s UN ambassador, Vassily Nebenzia, warned that a deadlock could open the field to additional candidates.
Verbatim Quotes
- “Israel will evaluate the candidates based on their record and their willingness to stand up to terrorism, antisemitism, and hypocrisy,” — Danny Danon
- “It’s too early to have a consensus,” — council
Conflicting Reports & Gaps
The poll is described by most outlets as having taken place on Friday, August 21, yet the date ledger lists August 21 as a scheduled (future) event, leaving the exact timing uncertain. While most sources agree on Rodrigues Birkett’s eight “encourage” votes, the number of “discourage” votes for Grossi varies, reflecting incomplete reporting.
Why It Matters – Implications for UN Leadership
The next secretary-general will inherit a UN facing multiple crises. Securing the required nine “encourage” votes while avoiding a permanent-member veto remains a delicate balancing act; later rounds will reveal whether any veto-holders are signaling opposition. The opaque nature of the straw polls has drawn criticism for limiting transparency.
What’s Next
The Security Council is expected to conduct additional straw polls in the coming weeks. If a candidate reaches the nine-vote threshold without a veto, the Council will forward a formal recommendation to the General Assembly for appointment. Observers note the process could extend over several weeks.
