Full Breakdown
Palestinian Public Opinion Shifts Ahead of November 28 Legislative Vote
8/24/2026, 4:40:39 AM
Core Findings of the PSR Survey
The Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research (PSR) released a poll showing support for Hamas fell from 35 % to 24 %, matching Fatah’s 24 % overall. Among likely voters, Fatah registers 32 % and Hamas 29 %, within the poll’s error range, while third-party groups attract 18 % of the vote.
Background & Context
The surge in Hamas popularity after the October 7 conflict was linked to its active confrontation of Israel rather than ideological alignment. That boost is receding, especially in the West Bank where Hamas support dropped from 32 % to 18 %.
Data & Statistics
| Indicator | Current Share | Ten-Month Earlier |
|---|---|---|
| Support for Hamas (overall) | 24 % | 35 % |
| Support for Fatah (overall) | 24 % | — |
| View Hamas as victorious | 20 % | 39 % |
| View Israel as victorious | 15 % | — |
| Prefer negotiations | 44 % | 36 % |
| Prefer armed struggle | 27 % | 41 % |
| Believe Hamas should disarm before Israeli withdrawal | 20 % | — |
| Oppose Hamas disarmament before withdrawal | 72 % | — |
| Believe PA is a burden | 65 % | — |
| Believe corruption exists in PA | 83 % | — |
| Favor a two-state solution based on 1967 borders | 56 % | — |
| Feel personally safe (overall) | 23 % | — |
Official Statements & Responses
Khalil Shikaki, director of PSR, said the decline in Hamas support reflects a broader crisis of confidence in Palestinian leadership. He noted younger Palestinians are especially critical of both Hamas and the PA, creating “fertile ground” for new parties. Shikaki warned the Israeli election on October 27 could shape Palestinian voter confidence: a Netanyahu victory might reinforce the perception that Palestinian elections are “worthless,” while a moderate outcome could boost optimism about the November 28 vote.
Why It Matters
The poll suggests a potential realignment ahead of the legislative elections, with former Fatah leader Marwan Barghouti emerging as the most popular hypothetical successor to President Mahmoud Abbas (39 % of respondents). Barghouti’s imprisonment raises legal and credibility questions about his ability to lead an electoral list. The shift toward negotiations could influence intra-Palestinian dynamics and the broader conflict.
Timeline
- October 7 – Hamas’ post-conflict surge among West Bank Palestinians.
- November 4, 2022 – Fatah’s Balata Brigade displays weapons in a West Bank parade.
- June 3, 2026 – President Mahmoud Abbas leads a newly elected Fatah Central Committee meeting in Ramallah.
- October 27 (scheduled) – Israeli parliamentary election, a month before the Palestinian legislative vote.
- November 28 (scheduled) – Palestinian legislative elections; presidential elections expected in early 2027.
What’s Next
- Palestinian Legislative Elections (Nov 28) – Voter sentiment will test whether new parties can fill the “political vacuum” identified by PSR.
- Israeli Election (Oct 27) – Outcomes may affect Palestinian electoral participation, according to Shikaki.
- Potential Barghouti Candidacy – Legal feasibility remains open, but credibility will depend on PA decisions and public perception.
Conflicting Reports & Gaps
The survey provides a single snapshot; longitudinal data after the Israeli election and the Palestinian vote are not yet available. The poll also excludes Palestinians residing outside the territories, which could affect overall electoral dynamics.
