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Goldman: China’s advanced-chip deficit to shrink 34% by 2035

8/24/2026

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Summary

Story summary

Goldman Sachs projects China will slash its advanced-chip deficit over the next decade.
Advanced-node wafer supply is forecast to grow 46% CAGR from 2025 to 2035.
Supply-demand gap should narrow to 34% by 2035, down from 92% in 2025.
Advanced-node output may reach 410,000 wafers monthly versus 619,000 wafers demand.
SMIC will add 30-50k wafers monthly 2026-2031, then 20k monthly through 2035, with yields rising from 23% to 75%.

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Story summary

Goldman Sachs projects China will slash its advanced-chip deficit over the next decade.
Advanced-node wafer supply is forecast to grow 46% CAGR from 2025 to 2035.
Supply-demand gap should narrow to 34% by 2035, down from 92% in 2025.
Advanced-node output may reach 410,000 wafers monthly versus 619,000 wafers demand.
SMIC will add 30-50k wafers monthly 2026-2031, then 20k monthly through 2035, with yields rising from 23% to 75%.