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Story perspectives

Polls Give Opportunity 91.8% Chance to Enter Parliament

8/25/2026

45 5 Full Breakdown

Summary

Story summary

Opportunity Party has risen above 5% in polls, giving it a chance to enter Parliament without an electorate win.
Poll of Polls assigns Opportunity a 91.8% probability of reaching the 5% threshold.
Adding Opportunity to a coalition raises the coalition’s success odds to 97.5%.
National and NZ First rule out working with Opportunity, while Act remains open.
Labour leader Chris Hipkins says Labour is open to cooperating with Opportunity.

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Story summary

Opportunity Party has risen above 5% in polls, giving it a chance to enter Parliament without an electorate win.
Poll of Polls assigns Opportunity a 91.8% probability of reaching the 5% threshold.
Adding Opportunity to a coalition raises the coalition’s success odds to 97.5%.
National and NZ First rule out working with Opportunity, while Act remains open.
Labour leader Chris Hipkins says Labour is open to cooperating with Opportunity.