Full Breakdown
Gold Hits Three-Month High as Treasury Buyback, Dollar Weakness and Jackson Hole Anticipation Drive Rally
8/25/2026, 1:52:18 AM
Market Surge on August 24
On Monday, August 24, spot gold rose between 0.7% and 1.6% to trade above $4,630 per ounce, its highest level since May 14. Reported prices varied: Reuters $4,673.20, CNBC $4,677.14, Economies $4,635.39, and Voice of Emirates $4,641.27. U.S. gold futures for December delivery were higher, ranging from $4,697.70 to $4,734.70 per ounce.
Background & Context
The rally follows two linked developments. First, the U.S. Treasury announced a bond-buyback program that doubled the maximum purchase size from $2 billion to at least $4 billion per operation, a move described by Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent as signaling that long-term yields “do not reflect underlying fundamentals.” The buyback pushed the dollar toward multi-month lows, lowering the foreign-currency cost of dollar-denominated bullion.
Second, markets are positioning ahead of the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge—the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index—due later in the week, and the debut Jackson Hole speech of Fed Chair Kevin Warsh scheduled for Friday, August 28.
Data & Statistics
- Spot gold: $4,630 – $4,677 per ounce (five sources).
- Gold futures (Dec.): $4,697 – $4,735 per ounce.
- Gold-backed ETFs: inflows of 46.7 metric tons ($6.4 billion) last week, the strongest weekly demand in ten months, per the World Gold Council.
- U.S. 10-year Treasury yield: slipped about 2 basis points to 4.71 % on the morning of August 24.
- U.S. dollar index: near 98.8, close to a three-month low.
Official Statements & Responses
- World Gold Council: Reported the 46.7-metric-ton ETF inflow and identified North American and European-listed funds as the primary contributors.
- Federal Reserve: No formal statement was released before the scheduled Warsh speech; analysts note that the PCE index and Warsh’s remarks will be the primary signals for rate-path expectations.
Verbatim Quotes
- “The fundamentals and technicals are kind of lining up bullish for the gold market here to start the trading week,” — Jim Wyckoff, market analyst at American Gold Exchange
Conflicting Reports & Gaps
- Price levels: Reuters, CNBC, Economies, and Voice of Emirates each provide a different spot-gold figure for the same day, reflecting variations in reporting time and market snapshot.
- Yield impact: Treasury officials attribute the buyback to “fundamental” signaling, while market commentary describes the effect as “QE-like,” a characterization not directly confirmed by the Treasury.
Why It Matters
The convergence of a weaker dollar, lower real yields, and heightened policy uncertainty creates a “cost-of-carry” environment that favors non-yielding assets such as gold.
What’s Next
- Wednesday: Release of the core PCE price index.
- Friday, August 28: Kevin Warsh’s Jackson Hole keynote, expected around 10 a.m. ET.
- September 16: Federal Reserve policy decision, nineteen days after Warsh’s speech.
These events will shape market expectations for interest rates, the dollar’s trajectory, and the near-term direction of gold prices.
