Full Breakdown
Eisenkot Prepares Minority-Government Plan Ahead of the October 27 Election
8/25/2026, 10:55:03 AM
Election Landscape and Coalition Math
Polls in the weeks before the October 27 election show the centrist Yashar party, led by former IDF chief Gadi Eisenkot, as the largest bloc in the 120-member Knesset. A Channel 12 survey projects Yashar at 24 seats, Likud at 22, Bennett’s B’Yachad at 15, and the Democrats at 11, giving the opposition bloc 59 seats and the pro-Netanyahu bloc 50 seats. The JPost poll offers the same numbers, while an Islam Times poll gives Yashar 26 seats, Likud 20, and the opposition 60 seats—just one short of the 61-seat majority required for a stable coalition. All surveys agree Eisenkot’s bloc falls short of the threshold, opening the possibility of a minority government with 58–59 MKs, which Israeli law permits if a simple majority of those present votes in favor.
Historical Precedent for Minority Governments
Israel has previously sworn in governments without an outright majority. In June 2021, the Bennett-Lapid “change” coalition secured confidence by a 60-to-59 vote after Ra’am’s Said al-Harumi abstained. Earlier examples include Yitzhak Rabin’s 1976 minority cabinet, Menachem Begin’s 1981 government that relied on a razor-thin 61-MK support, and Rabin’s 1993 administration that operated with 56 MKs backed by Arab parties, enabling the Oslo Accords and a peace treaty with Jordan.
Options for Securing a Governing Majority
Eisenkot’s team is weighing two primary routes to cross the 61-seat line. First, the inclusion of Mansour Abbas’s Ra’am (United Arab List) could add four or five seats; a recent Ra’am convention speech placed Palestinian statehood at the centre of its platform, urging Israeli and U.S. recognition. Second, the imminent launch of a new right-wing party by former IDF Gen. Ofer Winter is expected to draw four seats, primarily from the Religious Zionist Party, reshuffling the pro-Netanyahu bloc to 49 seats while boosting the opposition to 60. Both options face public resistance: many voters view a coalition with an Islamist party as “deeply problematic,” and a minority government would command support from roughly 49 percent of the electorate, raising questions of legitimacy.
Verbatim Quotes
- “The cost of a left-wing coalition with the Muslim Brotherhood has been exposed again,” — Benjamin Netanyahu
- “At Gal’s grave, I vowed that the price he and his friends paid… would not be in vain,” — Gadi Eisenkot
- “He would have stayed, but he really felt that at a certain point he was being used,” — David Makovsky
Conflicting Reports & Gaps
The seat projections differ across polls: Channel 12 and JPost both place Yashar at 24 seats, while Islam Times assigns it 26 seats. Likud’s tally ranges from 20 to 22 seats, and the opposition bloc’s total varies between 59 and 60 seats. No source provides a definitive estimate of how many Arab MKs would join a coalition, nor does any poll quantify public acceptance of a Ra’am partnership beyond the cited 56 percent of anti-Netanyahu voters.
What’s Next
The October 27 election will determine whether Eisenkot can assemble a minority government or must seek additional partners such as Ra’am or the Winter party. If a minority cabinet is sworn in, Eisenkot would serve as caretaker prime minister until a new election is called, potentially reshaping Israel’s political landscape after a decade of Netanyahu’s dominance.
