Climate-Damage Analysis Challenges Economic Case for Rosebank and Jackdaw North Sea Fields

The UK government is reviewing proposals to develop the Rosebank and Jackdaw offshore oil and gas fields in the North Sea. The projects are promoted by Adura, a joint venture of Shell and Equinor, which estimates a £28.7 billion economic benefit to the United Kingdom. An independent analysis submitted to the Rosebank consultation estimates that carbon emissions from the fields could cause global economic damage of £119 billion to £336 billion by 2100, a figure that rises to £170 billion-£482 billion under higher-production scenarios. Only 6 % of the upper estimate would be needed to erase the projected UK gains.

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The assessment applies peer-reviewed research on temperature-related economic harm (published in *Nature*) to Adura’s production forecasts. It assumes additional CO2 from the fields will not be offset by reductions elsewhere, reflecting the view that new North Sea extraction does not typically lead to the shutdown of older fields. Rosebank alone accounts for roughly 88 % of the projected damages. The analysis notes that its damage estimates likely understate true costs because they exclude amplified extreme weather, sea-level rise, and climate-related mortality.

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• Projected UK revenue from the fields: £28.7 billion.

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• Estimated global climate-damage range (baseline): £119 billion-£336 billion (2024-2100, present-value).

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• Higher-production damage range: £170 billion-£482 billion.

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• Rosebank contribution to damage: ? 88 %.

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• A 6 % impact of the upper-range damage would nullify the UK’s projected economic benefit.

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• “The numbers presented here show there’s going to be a very strong destruction of [economic] value above and beyond what Rosebank and Jackdaw could generate for the UK,” — Luke Hatton, at Imperial College London

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• “Remaining tied to the use of fossil fuels keeps UK industries and consumers exposed to the international markets that set prices and will cost way more than it can ever deliver in growth.” — Prof Ian Bateman, at the University of Exeter Business School

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• “This is an interesting study which shows the cumulative global climate damage of oil extraction and use is beginning to exceed its face value. When we add in the tax giveaways to the oil industry and compare this to the declining cost and zero climate damage of renewable energy then the economic case for leaving oil in the ground is overwhelming.” — University, of Sheffield’s Grantham Centre for Sustainable Futures

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• “The North Sea remains a vital national asset, supporting jobs, growth and the UK’s energy security. Oil and gas will continue to play an important role in our energy system for decades to come, alongside transitioning to clean power to protect jobs and tackle the climate crisis.” — Net Zero

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*The Guardian’s climate forum will discuss these issues on 20 October.*

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