Trump-Led War on Iran Enters Sixth Month as Economic Pressure Campaign Expands

In February, President Donald Trump approved a full-scale attack on Iran aimed at dismantling its nuclear program and effecting regime change. Leaked Oval Office briefing notes show that Tulsi Gabbard, then Director of National Intelligence, warned that an all-out strike could prompt Iran to close the Strait of Hormuz, trigger global oil chaos, and replace Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei with a hard-line successor more eager to pursue nuclear weapons. Military leaders also cautioned that a war would cost U.S. lives and deplete ammunition stocks. Nevertheless, the president proceeded, and the United States and Israel launched coordinated strikes that killed dozens of Iranian officials, including Khamenei, according to the same briefing.

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Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced “Operation Economic Outcast,” a sweeping effort to cut off Iran’s access to the U.S. financial system. The campaign targets foreign firms operating in five Iranian sectors—digital assets, technology, gold, aviation and shipping—and ends waivers that previously allowed remittance flows and academic exchanges. While the Treasury warned that penalties could be imposed on a “major foreign financial institution” within days, it stopped short of naming Chinese banks, despite Beijing purchasing roughly 90 % of Iran’s oil through a shadow fleet of vessels. Bessent framed the move as a “warning shot” and said the “clock just started ticking” for countries that continue facilitating Iranian trade.

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Analysts at the Nuclear Threat Initiative called the war “all predictable and predicted,” arguing that launching without a clear political objective has led to “mishandled diplomacy.” Ali Vaez, International Crisis Group’s Iran project director, described the Treasury announcement as “a nothing burger,” asserting that only concrete implementation of threats could shift Tehran’s calculus. European diplomats warned that excessive pressure might push the Revolutionary Guard toward desperate actions, potentially worsening the conflict.

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• The war has persisted for roughly six months, far beyond the “weeks” timeline projected by Trump’s inner circle.

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• The Strait of Hormuz remains partially closed; a secure lane now allows 15-20 vessels per night, down from pre-war traffic levels.

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• U.S. gas prices have risen sharply, contributing to a political liability for Republicans ahead of the midterm elections.

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• 18 U.S. service members have been killed, and hundreds more injured in Iranian strikes.

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The conflict disrupts global energy markets, inflates fuel costs for American consumers, and strains U.S. alliances in the Gulf. The Treasury’s economic campaign risks escalating tensions with China, a major buyer of Iranian oil, and could force European partners to align with U.S. sanctions, reviving earlier trans-Atlantic frictions. Domestically, the war’s unpopularity is reflected in polling that shows less than one-third of midterm voters approve of the administration’s handling.

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Sources differ on the precise impact of the Strait of Hormuz closure: some describe a near-total shutdown, while others note a limited night-time lane for 15-20 vessels. No definitive data on the volume of oil still flowing through the strait has been provided.

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President Trump is slated to meet Chinese President Xi Jinping next month, a summit that could shape whether larger Chinese banks face sanctions under Operation Economic Outcast. Treasury officials indicated that a major foreign financial institution could be sanctioned soon, signaling an acceleration of economic pressure as diplomatic talks continue.

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