Full Breakdown
Former Defense Minister Mykhailo Fedorov Says Ukraine Is Gradually Losing the War Unless Strategic Reforms Are Made
8/26/2026, 2:05:35 AM
Fedorov’s Warning of a Turning Point
He said Kyiv has only “a window of several months” to adopt strategic and institutional changes capable of reversing the trend.
Context of the Ouster and the Four-Year Conflict
Fedorov, a 35-year-old reformer, was dismissed six months after his appointment, a move that sparked protests and a public dispute with President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. Since Russia’s full-scale invasion in February 2022, Ukraine has been under martial law, preventing national elections and shaping the political environment in which Fedorov’s statements were made.
Institutional Critiques and Reform Proposals
Fedorov accused entrenched corruption, patronage networks, and political interference of crippling the state’s effectiveness, which he quantified as “5 % effectiveness.” He argued that Ukraine lacks an overall vision for winning the war and that existing technologies—autonomous drones, AI-guided systems, and cheap interceptor missiles—are not being deployed due to a “absence of vision.”
He also called for wartime elections, asserting that Ukraine could devise “innovative solutions” to logistical and security challenges. While he denied that external forces were pushing his election agenda, he said he might seek the presidency in the future.
In parallel, Roman Kostenko, secretary of the parliamentary defense committee, indicated that the government is reviewing the draft-age rules for mobilization, noting “there are already talks and, as far as I know, some things are changing in the draft age.” This reflects broader discussions about how to replenish forces and improve institutional responsiveness.
Official Responses
President Zelenskyy rejected the election proposal, warning that wartime elections could “destroy” Ukraine by creating political divisions during the conflict.
Zelenskyy also contested Fedorov’s budget figures, claiming that front-loading defense spending had created a $27 billion shortfall, a claim Fedorov disputed, saying the ministry had planned to cover the deficit through savings from procurement tenders and international support.
Data & Statistics
- A poll conducted at the end of July reported that 82 % of Ukrainians believed Ukraine would win the war, though most expected fighting to continue into 2027 or later.
- Fedorov cited a projected $5 billion budget deficit for the defense ministry by year-end, which he said was accounted for in the ministry’s planning.
Verbatim Quotes
- “I think that there’s now a turning point which will determine our future trajectory,” — Mykhailo Fedorov, ukrainian defense minister
- “I think that there’s now a turning point which will determine our future trajectory, but it looks as though we’re gradually, slowly losing,” — Mykhailo Fedorov, ukrainian defense minister
- “There are already talks and, as far as I know, some things are changing in the draft age,” — Roman Kostenko
What’s Next
Fedorov announced plans to split his time between advocating for the restoration of elections and pursuing military-technology ventures, including an investment fund he intends to finance during an upcoming trip to the United States. No further official timelines have been disclosed.
