Story perspectives

Talarico and Paxton Tight Race for Texas Senate Seat

8/26/2026

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Paxton vs Talarico

Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton and Democrat state Rep. James Talarico are running for the Texas U.S. Senate seat on November 3, 2026.
Prediction markets and recent polls show a statistically close race, with differing estimates of Talarico’s Hispanic advantage.
Kalshi’s prediction market listed Talarico at 51 % and Paxton at 49 % on August 25, 2026.
Talarico has raised $72 million since 2025, while Paxton has raised $16.8 million.

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Paxton vs Talarico

Attorney General Ken Paxton and Democrat state Rep. James Talarico are vying for Texas U.S. Senate seat in the November 3, 2026 election.
Paxton unveiled a four-point plan proposing bans on Chinese technology in data centers and criminal penalties for AI platforms that endanger children.
Talarico raised money from Reid Hoffman and accused Paxton of taking money from firms.
Austin Humane Society partnered with Talarico for a “Puppies for Talarico” event.

History

Historical Context

In 1993 Republican Kay Bailey Hutchison won a Texas Senate seat, and the 1994 “Contract with America” produced a 54-seat swing that gave Republicans control of chambers for the first time since 1952. That shift showed how fundraising and tides could decide Texas races, a pattern echoed in the 2026 contest where Republican Ken Paxton and Democrat James Talarico have raised $16.8 million and $72 million respectively.

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Paxton vs Talarico

Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton and Democrat state Rep. James Talarico are running for the Texas U.S. Senate seat on November 3, 2026.
Prediction markets and recent polls show a statistically close race, with differing estimates of Talarico’s Hispanic advantage.
Kalshi’s prediction market listed Talarico at 51 % and Paxton at 49 % on August 25, 2026.
Talarico has raised $72 million since 2025, while Paxton has raised $16.8 million.

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