Back to today’s briefing

Story perspectives

July CPI Beat Lifts RBA Hike Odds to 38%

8/26/2026

24 4 Full Breakdown

Summary

Story summary

The Reserve Bank of Australia faces heightened rate-hike risk after July CPI beat forecasts.
July headline CPI rose 3.5% year-over-year, above the 3.2% consensus.
Traders now price a 38% chance of a September RBA hike, up from 17%.
ANZ analyst Adam Boyton expects a quarter-point RBA hike in November, revising earlier forecasts.
Fuel prices jumped 7.5% in July after three months of declines.

History

Historical Context

In 1979, Paul Volcker took over the Federal Reserve and, as inflation surged to 11.3%, raised the federal funds rate from about 11% to 20% by June 1981, a policy that helped end stagflation but deepened the 1980-82 recession. The Reserve Bank of Australia faces comparable inflation pressures, prompting traders to price a possible September rate hike.

1 of 2

Story summary

The Reserve Bank of Australia faces heightened rate-hike risk after July CPI beat forecasts.
July headline CPI rose 3.5% year-over-year, above the 3.2% consensus.
Traders now price a 38% chance of a September RBA hike, up from 17%.
ANZ analyst Adam Boyton expects a quarter-point RBA hike in November, revising earlier forecasts.
Fuel prices jumped 7.5% in July after three months of declines.

1 / 2