Full Breakdown
Finnish President Stubb Backs Ukraine’s Deep-Strike Strategy, Prompting Kremlin Rebuttal
8/26/2026, 9:29:04 PM
Core Development
At a press conference in Kyiv after the Coalition of the Willing summit on August 24, Finnish President Alexander Stubb said Ukraine’s long-range missile and drone attacks on Russian oil refineries and logistics centres increase the war’s cost for Moscow and could push the Kremlin toward peace talks. He cited a poll showing 65 % of Russians now want the war to end and argued that strikes on the e-commerce network Wildberries added roughly 10 percentage points to that sentiment. Stubb called the strategy “sensible” and urged Finland’s partners to keep supplying weapons that enable deeper strikes inside Russian territory.
Background & Context
Finland joined NATO in 2023, creating the longest NATO-Russia border in Europe—1,343 km. Earlier in the year, Stubb told a Helsinki audience that “the border between Finland and Russia has become a border between NATO and Russia,” emphasizing a desire to normalise ties after the Ukraine conflict ends.
Finland’s prime minister, Petteri Orpo, warned on August 25 that Russia is intensifying hybrid attacks across Europe, underscoring the heightened security environment surrounding Finland’s NATO membership and its support for Kyiv.
Data & Statistics
| Indicator | Figure |
|---|---|
| Russians favouring an end to the war | 65 % |
| Support boost from Wildberries strikes | ?10 pp |
| Length of Finland-Russia border | 1,343 km |
Official Statements & Responses
- President Stubb argued that raising the economic and military cost of the war is “the only way” to bring Moscow to the negotiating table and framed deep-strike capability as essential for European security.
- Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov called Stubb’s comments “surprising” given his earlier remarks on normalising relations and accused Stubb (and the British prime minister) of belonging to a “party of war” that deceives voters by claiming Russia can be defeated.
Verbatim Quotes
- “Russia is and will remain our neighbour,” — Alexander Stubb
- “The border between Finland and Russia has become a border between NATO and Russia. This need not mean an iron curtain,” — Alexander Stubb
- “The reason for this is very simple. It increases the cost and the price of the war for Russia.” — Alexander Stubb
Why It Matters
Stubb’s endorsement links Finland’s security policy directly to Ukraine’s war conduct. By framing deep strikes as “sensible,” Finland signals willingness to support actions that pressure Russia, affecting the stability of the Finland-Russia border and NATO’s eastern flank. The Kremlin’s rebuke shows how Finnish statements can provoke diplomatic retaliation, complicating any future effort to “redefine” bilateral ties after the conflict.
Finland is also deepening defence cooperation with Ukraine, signing memoranda to produce drones, maritime unmanned systems, and ground-based robotic platforms, further entangling the two countries’ strategic interests.
What’s Next
Finland’s bid for a non-permanent seat on the United Nations Security Council for 2029-2030 proceeds toward a June 2028 election, a diplomatic avenue that may intersect with its stance on the Ukraine war. Ongoing NATO support for Ukraine’s long-range strike capabilities and Finnish-Ukrainian defence projects are expected to shape regional security dynamics in the months ahead.
