Full Breakdown
Heat-Related Deaths in England and Wales Near Parity with Cold-Related Mortality
8/26/2026, 10:35:30 PM
Rising Heat-Related Mortality in England and Wales
New analyses released by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) show that more than 40,000 excess deaths occurred on the hottest days in England and Wales between 1988 and 2025. The data reveal a sharp rise in heat-related mortality in recent years, with the gap between heat- and cold-related deaths narrowing dramatically.
Background & Context
Historically, cold-related excess deaths far outnumbered those linked to heat. Between 1988 and 2025, ONS estimates attribute 138,944 deaths in England and 10,098 in Wales to the coldest 2.5 % of days, compared with 40,063 heat-related deaths in England and 2,070 in Wales. The climate-change-driven increase in summer temperatures has accelerated the shift, especially for people aged 65 + who face at least a 50 % higher mortality risk when temperatures exceed 24 °C.
Data & Statistics
| Region (1988-2025) | Heat-related excess deaths | Cold-related excess deaths |
|---|---|---|
| England | 40,063 (0.21 % of all deaths) | 138,944 (0.72 % of all deaths) |
| Wales | 2,070 (0.16 %) | 10,098 (0.79 %) |
- Annual heat-related deaths rose from 818 in 2024 to 2,805 in 2025, more than three times the previous year. The 2022 peak recorded 4,652 deaths.
- The UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA) announced on 30 July that an estimated 2,877 people died during the May-June heatwaves, nearly double the total summer heat deaths in 2025.
- London recorded the highest proportion of deaths attributable to both extreme heat and cold, with 7,675 extra heat-related deaths over the four-decade period.
- In 2025, every English and Welsh region except the North West and South East saw more heat-related than cold-related deaths.
Official Statements & Responses
- The ONS released the mortality estimates, noting that “the proportion of deaths associated with the hottest days has increased in recent years, and the gap between heat- and cold-related deaths is narrowing.”
- The UKHSA’s July 30 announcement highlighted the unprecedented toll of the May-June heatwaves and warned that continued warming could further elevate mortality.
- The World Health Organization reported in May that heat-related mortality in its European region has risen by more than 30 % over the past two decades, underscoring the broader continental trend.
Criticism & Opposition
Bob Ward, senior fellow at the Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change and the Environment, described the findings as a “shocking national scandal,” arguing that if comparable deaths occurred from flooding, public outrage would be far greater. He contended that the notion of climate change being an “acceptable risk” because milder winters offset heat deaths is no longer tenable.
What’s Next
Provisional Met Office data indicate that England’s mean summer temperature in 2026 has reached 18.19 °C so far. Analysts note that the remainder of August would need to be 1.41 °C below the current average for the year to match the existing record set in 2025.
Verbatim Quotes
- “The proportion of deaths associated with the hottest days has increased in recent years, and the gap between heat- and cold-related deaths is narrowing.” — the agency — the agency
