Nebraska Senate Race Tightens as Independent Dan Osborn Matches Incumbent Pete Ricketts in New Poll

Republican Senator Pete Ricketts and independent mechanic-labor leader Dan Osborn are tied at 47 percent in an Impact Research poll of likely voters conducted August 9-13, 2026. The race, traditionally a Republican stronghold, has become the only competitive Senate contest in Nebraska after the Democratic Party declined to field a candidate and instead endorsed Osborn.

Newsweek

• Impact Research poll (600 respondents, margin of error ±4 points) shows Ricketts 47 percent, Osborn 47 percent, with 5 percent undecided.

Newsweek

• The same poll records a generic-ballot Republican advantage of 11 points.

Newsweek

• Osborn’s favorability is +4 points (48 % favorable vs. 44 % unfavorable); Ricketts’ favorability is –10 points (44 % favorable vs. 54 % unfavorable).

Newsweek

• A May 8-11, 2026 Tavern Research poll (1,165 respondents, margin of error ±3.5 points) gave Osborn a 5-point lead, 47 % to 42 % for Ricketts.

Newsweek

• Prediction markets favor Ricketts, assigning a 70 % win probability on both Kalshi and Polymarket as of the latest data.

Newsweek

Osborn told CNN in August that, if elected, he will remain independent and will not caucus with either party, emphasizing his willingness to work with any senator on committee assignments. Republican National Senate Committee (NRSC) regional press secretary Nick Puglia labeled Osborn a “grifter” seeking higher taxes and open borders. Ricketts’ campaign manager Max Oberg dismissed the Impact Research poll as a “desperate leak,” questioning its source and reliability. Political scientist Kevin Smith of the University of Nebraska-Lincoln cautioned that while the internal poll shows a tie, the Republican registration advantage (620,016 Republicans vs. 327,865 Democrats) remains a decisive factor.

Newsweek

• “Desperate campaigns leak polls. Winning campaigns don't have to. Osborn's internals were off by 12 points in 2024. His last leak had him up five. Now apparently it's tied. This is a gasp for air from a campaign riddled with infighting, fleeing staff, and a dishonest candidate. We encourage reporters to consider the source,” — Max Oberg, ricketts’ campaign manager

Newsweek

The race’s competitiveness could affect Senate control. Republicans hold a 53-47 majority; flipping the Nebraska seat would reduce that margin, giving Democrats one fewer Republican seat to overcome. Although Osborn has pledged no caucus affiliation, his victory would still count as a non-Republican seat, potentially narrowing the GOP’s legislative edge in a closely divided chamber.

Newsweek