Full Breakdown
Wall Street Holds Steady Amid Hot Inflation Data and Anticipation of Nvidia Earnings
8/27/2026, 2:09:35 AM
Core Market Moves on August 26
On August 26 the Dow Jones fell 113 points (-0.2%) to 53,463.88, the S&P 500 slipped 0.01% to 7,676.29 and the Nasdaq dropped 0.06% to 26,136.18, according to Reuters. Nvidia shares were down 0.4% ahead of its quarterly report, and the market showed a modest net-advancer advantage (NYSE 1.17-to-1, Nasdaq 1.2-to-1).
Inflation Data and Economic Context
A Commerce Department report showed U.S. consumer-price inflation rose 3.7% year-over-year through July, just above the 3.6% forecast. Real GDP grew 1.5% in Q2. Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) figures released the same day recorded a 3.7% year-on-year increase and a 0.2% month-on-month rise, with core PCE up 3.3% annually, matching expectations (CNBC).
Nvidia Earnings as Market Focal Point
Nvidia, the largest S&P 500 constituent with a market capitalisation exceeding $5 trillion, is slated to report after the market close. FactSet estimates earnings of $2.09 per share on revenue of $92.28 billion. The chipmaker’s performance is viewed as a barometer for the AI-driven rally that has buoyed tech stocks this year.
Official Statements & Responses
The inflation print nudged the probability of a September Federal Reserve rate hike to 38.1% on the CME FedWatch tool, up from roughly 36% before the data. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh is scheduled to speak at the Jackson Hole symposium on Friday, a session analysts expect to shape expectations for the September policy meeting.
Data & Statistics
- Annual CPI inflation: 3.7% (Commerce Department)
- Q2 GDP growth: 1.5% (Commerce Department)
- PCE year-on-year: 3.7%; core PCE annual: 3.3% (CNBC)
- Index moves: Dow -113 pts (-0.2%); S&P 500 -0.01%; Nasdaq -0.06%
- Odds of September rate hike: 38.1% (CME FedWatch)
- Nvidia earnings forecast: $2.09 EPS, $92.28 B revenue (FactSet)
Why It Matters
The hotter-than-expected inflation reading reinforces concerns that the Fed may keep rates elevated longer, which could pressure equity valuations. Resilient GDP growth provides a counterweight, suggesting the economy can absorb higher rates. Nvidia’s upcoming results will test whether AI-related spending remains robust enough to sustain recent gains, influencing market risk appetite.
Official Statements & Responses (continued)
Analysts noted the mixed backdrop: inflation remains “sticky,” while corporate earnings continue to be “standout,” according to market participants.
Verbatim Quotes
- “It wasn't enough to shift the balance for September's meeting, but if subsequent data point in the same direction, the Fed may feel more pressure to move off the sidelines,” — Ellen Zentner, chief economic strategist, Morgan Stanley Wealth Management
- “We're clearly still in a period where inflation is sticky and it's temporarily putting upward pressure on interest rates - an important factor in keeping this bull market for stocks going,” — Jeff Buchbinder, chief equity strategist, LPL Financial
What’s Next
Investors will watch Warsh’s remarks at Jackson Hole for clues on the central bank’s stance ahead of the September meeting. Nvidia’s earnings, released after the close on August 26, will provide the next major data point for assessing the durability of the AI-driven rally.
