Democrats Lead in Three Texas Districts Trump Won by Double Digits

New polling from Texas Southern University’s Barbara Jordan-Mickey Leland School of Public Affairs shows Democratic candidates ahead of Republican incumbents in three South-Texas congressional districts that President Donald Trump carried by double-digit margins in 2024. In the 15th District, Tejano singer Bobby Pulido leads Rep. Monica De La Cruz 50 %-45 %. In the 28th and 34th districts, Democratic Senate nominee James Talarico leads Attorney General Ken Paxton 51 %-41 % and 53 %-42 % respectively.

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All three districts are heavily Hispanic—about 81 % in the 15th, roughly 90 % in the 34th—and voted for Trump in 2024 (18-point, 4-point and 2-point margins). Republican strategist Mike Madrid argues the shift reflects growing Latino frustration with the economy rather than a permanent rightward realignment.

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• Texas Southern University poll: Pulido +5-7 points; Talarico leads Paxton 51-41 % (28th) and 53-42 % (34th).

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• University of Texas/Texas Politics Project poll (August 5-13) shows Talarico at 42 % and Paxton at 39 % with 14 % undecided.

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• Emerson College poll (August 9-10) finds Paxton ahead 47 %-46 %—a statistical tie.

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• UnidosUS national poll (fielded April 27-May 14, released May 27) reports 60 % of Latino voters prioritize cost of living, with economy and wages at 40 %.

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• Texas-specific UnidosUS poll (October 8-22, 2025) places tariffs and trade policy third among economic concerns.

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The Texas Southern University poll suggests double-digit Democratic leads, while the University of Texas poll shows a narrower 3-point advantage, and the Emerson College poll registers a tie favoring the Republican. No single poll exceeds its margin of error, leaving the true state of the races uncertain. Additionally, the surveys do not capture late-campaign dynamics or voter turnout projections.

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• “People, I think, broadly are failing to understand that the Latino vote is the largest swing vote in America,” — Mike Madrid, republican strategist

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• “While people saw this shift to the right in 2024, most people were thinking it was part of this permanent realignment,” — Mike Madrid, republican strategist

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• “The Democratic Party has gotten unrelatable to a lot of these voters,” — Mike Madrid, republican strategist

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• “The race for U.S. Senate in Texas is sharply divided by age: voters under 50 favor Talarico by 15 points, 53 percent to 38 percent, while those over 50 break for Paxton by 11 points, 53 percent to 42 percent,” — Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling

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