Full Breakdown
Yashar Party Surges Ahead of Israel’s October 27 Election, Prompting Likud Strategy Shifts
8/27/2026, 8:01:14 PM
Election Polls Show Yashar Party Leading Likud
Recent polls place the Yashar party, founded in 2025 and led by former IDF chief Gadi Eisenkot, at 24 seats, ahead of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s Likud at 22 seats. Other surveys give Yashar 22-26 seats and Likud 21-23. Under the Channel 12 scenario the opposition bloc would hold 59 seats, the coalition 50, and Arab parties 11.
Netanyahu’s Internal Concerns and Likud’s Strategic Options
Likud officials have dismissed the results as “fake news,” but strategists are preparing contingency plans for a post-election deadlock. One option discussed is a rotation government in which Netanyahu serves first as prime minister, followed by Eisenkot, with a possible later move for Netanyahu toward the presidency after Isaac Herzog’s term.
Poll Data Highlights Seat Projections
- Yashar: 22-26 seats (24 in Channel 12 poll)
- Likud: 21-23 seats (22 in Channel 12 poll)
- B’Yachad (Naftali Bennett): 15 seats
- Democrats (Yair Golan): 11 seats
- Yisrael Beytenu (Avigdor Liberman): 9 seats
- Otzma Yehudit (Itamar Ben-Gvir): 9 seats
- United Torah Judaism: 8 seats
- Joint List: 7 seats
- Shas: 7 seats
- Religious Zionist Party (Bezalel Smotrich): 4 seats
- Ra’am (Mansour Abbas): 4 seats
Blue and White (Benny Gantz), Unity (Gilad Erdan and Yuli Edelstein), and a party led by Chili Tropper and Yoaz Hendel are projected to fall below the electoral threshold.
Policy Priorities of Yashar Party
Yashar emphasizes national security, broader conscription, and economic reforms that cut subsidies and reduce government spending. The platform proposes expanding military or national service for ultra-Orthodox and Arab Israelis, with alternatives such as hospital and school service. It also calls for closing unnecessary ministries, challenging monopolies in groceries, cosmetics and housing, and improving infrastructure in northern Israel.
Likud’s Rotation Government Scenario
Analysts are weighing a rotation agreement that would see Netanyahu initially as prime minister, then hand over the premiership to Eisenkot. The proposal includes safeguards to avoid a repeat of the 2020 rotation collapse, such as binding budget commitments, no-confidence vote clauses, and a deposited resignation letter with a trustee.
Verbatim Quotes
- “We are focused on preparing the plans for the first 100 days of, hopefully, a new government,” — Orit Farkash-Hacohen, expert
- “If you ask the voter what the important issues are when going to vote, the military element is still the most important,” — Jack Drassinower
What’s Next
The election is scheduled for October 27, 2026. Both Yashar and Likud are refining campaign strategies, while Likud continues internal scenario planning for potential coalition arrangements should no bloc achieve a clear majority.
