Full Breakdown
Texas Senate Race Heats Up: Paxton vs. Talarico
8/27/2026, 10:41:20 PM
Core Contest Overview
Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton and Democratic state Representative James Talarico are vying for the U.S. Senate seat held by Republicans since 1988. The race is set for the November 3 election. Recent polling shows the two candidates locked in a statistical tie, with each poll indicating a narrow lead for one side or the other. The contest follows a bruising Republican primary that saw Paxton defeat former Senator John Cornyn, and a Democratic primary in which Talarico secured the nomination without a runoff.
Background & Context
Paxton entered the race with former President Donald Trump’s endorsement. His record includes a 2023 impeachment by the Texas House on bribery and abuse-of-public-trust charges, an acquittal in the Texas Senate, and scrutiny over a 2022 plea deal involving a sexual-abuse case.
Talarico, a former Presbyterian seminarian, emerged as a challenger after defeating Jasmine Crockett in the Democratic primary. His campaign highlights Paxton’s data-center donations and past impeachment as liabilities.
Polling Landscape
- UTexas/Texas Politics Project (1,200 voters, Aug 5-13) – Talarico 42 %, Paxton 39 %, 14 % undecided.
- Emerson College (1,000 likely voters, Aug 9-10) – Paxton 47 %, Talarico 46 %.
- TSU (1,200 likely voters, July 27-30) – Talarico 47 %, Paxton 45 %.
- RealClearPolitics average (through Aug 13) – Talarico ahead 46 % to 44.3 %.
- Prediction markets (Kalshi, Polymarket) fluctuate between a slight edge for Talarico (51 % vs. 49 %) and an even split.
Emerson’s age breakdown: voters < 50 favor Talarico by 15 points (53 %-38 %); voters >= 50 favor Paxton by 11 points (53 %-42 %).
Data-Center Issue
A statewide poll found 57 % of Texans oppose building a data center in their community.
- Paxton’s four-point plan proposes federal legislation to bar Chinese technology in data centers, criminal liability for centers enabling harmful AI chatbots, co-sponsorship of the DATA Act to encourage off-grid power, and undoing the state sales-tax exemption for data centers (a policy he helped pass in 2013).
- Talarico’s platform calls for repealing the exemption, requiring data centers to cover 100 % of grid-connection costs, mandating closed-loop water-recycling, and granting local governments veto power.
Official Statements & Responses
Paxton framed his agenda as a national-security measure, asserting that “there’s no doubt in my mind that the United States will beat the Chinese Communist Party in the AI race.”
Republican Senator Ted Cruz described the race as a “$200 million fight” and suggested Paxton’s primary bruises could affect his general-election performance.
Governor Greg Abbott warned that the November 3 choice will be “extraordinary” and that voters will find the contrast between Paxton and Talarico “easy.”
Conflicting Reports & Gaps
Polls differ on the exact margin: the University of Texas poll shows a 3-point Talarico lead, while the Emerson poll indicates a 1-point Paxton lead. Prediction-market odds also vary, reflecting uncertainty about turnout and the data-center controversy. No poll has yet measured how the data-center issue will shift voter preferences, leaving a gap in understanding its electoral weight.
What’s Next
Early voting begins October 19, with Election Day on November 3. Both campaigns are intensifying outreach as the race tightens, and the data-center debate is expected to feature prominently in the final weeks.
