Full Breakdown
Abbott Expands Lead as Paxton Trails in Texas 2026 Midterm Polls
8/28/2026, 4:30:03 AM
Core Event
Two recent Texas polls show a widening gap between Republican Governor Greg Abbott and Democratic challenger State Rep. Gina Hinojosa, while Attorney General Ken Paxton falls behind Democratic State Rep. James Talarico. In the Texas Public Opinion Research (TPOR) poll of 1,000 likely voters conducted August 21–24, 2026 (margin of error ±3.3 pts), Abbott led Hinojosa by 7 points (49 % vs 42 %). The same poll gave Talarico a 6-point advantage over Paxton (48 % vs 42 %).
Background & Context
Texas has voted Republican in every statewide race since the 1990s, delivering President Donald Trump a 14-point margin in 2024. Demographic shifts in the Austin, Dallas and Houston suburbs and declining national approval for Trump have prompted Democrats to view the 2026 midterms as a possible opening. GOP margins have narrowed from 16 points in 2012 to under 6 points in 2020, though Republicans regained ground among Hispanic voters in 2024.
Data & Statistics
| Poll | Dates | Sample | Margin of error | Abbott vs. Hinojosa | Paxton vs. Talarico |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TPOR | Aug 21–24 2026 | 1,000 likely voters | ±3.3 pts | 49 % – 42 % (7-pt lead) | 42 % – 48 % (6-pt deficit) |
| TexasPulse | July 27–30 2026 | 619 likely voters | ±3 pts | 46 % – 45 % (1-pt lead) | 47 % – 43 % (4-pt deficit) |
Additional findings from the TPOR poll:
- Republican support for Paxton dropped from 84 % to 79 % among GOP voters, while 5 % of Republicans favored Talarico.
- Among independents, Talarico led 37 % to 11 % for Paxton.
- Voter enthusiasm: 39 % of Republicans reported being “extremely” motivated, versus 50 % of Democrats and 20 % of independents.
Conflicting Reports & Gaps
Polls differ on the exact size of Paxton’s deficit: TPOR shows a 6-point lag, TexasPulse a 4-point lag, while an Emerson College poll indicated Paxton ahead by 1 point. No single source provides a definitive trend, highlighting uncertainty about the race’s trajectory.
Verbatim Quotes
- “Economic concerns and affordability, as well as questions over AI data centers and the environment, seem especially salient to voters right now and have generally benefitted Democrats by giving them key platform issues they can defend,” — Wallace Golding, professor of communication studies at the University of Texas
What’s Next
The November 2026 general election will determine whether Texas remains solidly Republican or becomes a battleground for Senate control. Prediction-market data as of early August show Talarico at roughly 51 % probability of winning, a tightening from a month earlier. Campaigns are expected to intensify voter-turnout efforts, especially among independents and Hispanic voters, before the election.
