Full Breakdown
Ofer Winter’s Amcha Yisrael Party Reshapes Right-Wing Prospects Ahead of Israel’s 2026 Election
8/28/2026, 7:53:40 AM
Core Event: New Party Enters Race and Alters Seat Projections
Brigadier General (res.) Polls conducted after the launch show the new party capturing between six and eight Knesset seats, directly reducing the projected strength of the Religious Zionist Party and reshaping the balance of right-wing blocs ahead of the October 27 election.
Background & Context
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has expressed uncertainty about regaining the ten seats Likud lost in recent polls, telling reporters he does not know how to win them back. Likud’s official response dismissed the poll criticism, asserting that the party will win the election. The launch of Winter’s party follows weeks of speculation about a right-wing realignment and comes as several polls indicate a decline for established right-wing parties, notably the Religious Zionist Party led by Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich.
Data & Statistics
| Poll (source) | Likud seats | Yashar (Gadi Eisenkot) | Amcha Yisrael | Religious Zionist | Coalition bloc | Opposition bloc |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Channel 12 mandate poll | 22 | 24 | – (scenario shows Winter’s entry) | – | 50 | 59 |
| i24NEWS Direct Poll (Zuriel Sharon) | 26 | 23 | 8 | 4 (below threshold) | 59 | 49 |
| Walla poll (Lazar Research) | 21 | 25 | 6 | 2.6 % (below threshold) | 43 | 59 |
Additional figures from the Walla poll: Otzma Yehudit 8 seats, United Torah Judaism 7, Shas 7, Joint List 7, Ra’am 5. The poll’s bloc map shows Winter’s party aligning with the coalition bloc, which totals 43 seats without Winter and would rise to 49 seats if Winter joined.
Verbatim Quotes
- “In my estimation, he took approximately one seat from the Religious Zionist Party,” — Pollster Dr. Menachem Lazar, director
Conflicting Reports & Gaps
- Likud seat projections differ across polls: Channel 12 forecasts 22 seats, i24NEWS forecasts 26 seats, and the Walla poll forecasts 21 seats.
- Amcha Yisrael’s seat count varies from six (Walla) to eight.
- Religious Zionist Party status is reported as holding four seats but still above the electoral threshold in the i24NEWS poll, while both the Channel 12 scenario and the Walla poll place it below the threshold (2.6 % of the vote).
- No poll provides a definitive estimate for the final coalition composition after the official party-list deadline, leaving uncertainty about whether Winter’s party will join the governing bloc.
What’s Next
The deadline for submitting party lists is approaching, after which the final candidate line-ups will be locked in for the October 27 election. Analysts will assess whether Winter’s Amcha Yisrael can secure enough seats to tip the coalition balance and whether Likud can recover the ten seats it has reportedly lost.
