Florida Governor’s Race Moves From Solid to Likely Republican

The Cook Political Report has re-rated the 2024 Florida gubernatorial contest from “Solid Republican” to “Likely Republican.” The change reflects the entry of former Republican congressman David Jolly—now the Democratic nominee—who is running with former Democratic Representative Gwen Graham. Their Republican opponent, Byron Donalds, secured the GOP nomination earlier this month with the backing of former President Donald Trump.

Newsweek

Florida has trended sharply Republican in recent cycles: President Donald Trump won the state by roughly 13 points in 2024, and Governor Ron DeSantis was re-elected by nearly 20 points in 2022. Republicans also enjoy a registration advantage and a newly redrawn congressional map that favors the party. No Democrat has won the governorship in more than 25 years, making Jolly’s challenge historically significant.

Newsweek

• Fundraising: Cook notes that Donalds has raised more than ten times the amount Jolly has collected, creating a substantial financial gap for a statewide television campaign.

Newsweek

• Polling:

Newsweek

• A University of North Florida survey of 848 likely voters (July 8 – July 17) showed Donalds at 46 % and Jolly at 41 % (5-point lead, margin of error 3.8 %).

Newsweek

• A Targoz Market Research poll for the James Madison Institute (July 20 – July 26, 1,026 respondents) placed Donalds ahead by 7 points (45 % vs. 38 %).

Newsweek

• A Hart Research poll sponsored by the Democratic Governors Association (August 10 – August 13, 600 respondents) gave Jolly a 1-point edge (46 % vs. 45 %). Among independents in that poll, Jolly led 48 % to Donalds’ 37 %.

Newsweek

• Cook Political Report explained the shift as a response to Jolly’s appeal to independents and disaffected Republicans, while emphasizing that the race remains “no longer a complete lock.”

Newsweek

“Moving FL governor’s race from Solid Republican to Likely Republican is a modest shift, not a signal that Democrats are poised to flip the seat. Cook is saying the contest is no longer a complete lock, mainly because David Jolly is a former Republican with a ticket that can talk to independents. That does not make it a true toss up.” — November. Craig Agranoff, political professor at Florida Atlantic University

Newsweek