Likud’s Strategic Maneuvering Ahead of the October 27, 2026 Election

Likud officials warn that without a decisive plan the party could lose the upcoming election. In response, Likud dismissed poll criticism as “fake news,” insisting the party will win under Netanyahu’s leadership.

The Jerusalem PostThe Jerusalem PostProspect MagazineThe Jerusalem Post

The launch of Brig-Gen. (res.) Ofer Winter’s People of Israel party generated polling that suggested the new party could win five Knesset seats, potentially pushing Bezalel Smotrich’s Religious Zionist Party below the electoral threshold.

The Jerusalem Post

Likud’s internal discussions consider a “broad government” that could involve a rotation between Netanyahu and Gadi Eisenkot, head of the Yashar party. Eisenkot was seen at a conference in Haifa on July 9, 2026. The rotation concept mirrors the 2020 Netanyahu-Gantz arrangement, which created a “crisis of trust.” Likud officials have floated a remote possibility of moving Netanyahu to the presidency after his term as prime minister, linking the transition to the end of Isaac Herzog’s presidential term. They note that any such move would require resolution of Netanyahu’s criminal trial, though no legal barrier currently prevents a trial-subject from running for president.

The Jerusalem PostThe Jerusalem PostThe Jerusalem PostProspect Magazine

Likud has signaled willingness to advance legislation regulating military exemptions for ultra-Orthodox men—referred to as the “draft law”—before a new government is formally established. Shas lawmaker Yoav Ben Tzur echoed this, stating, “If we need to enter a coalition, a draft law will pass before the government is formed.”

YnetNewsThe Jerusalem PostThe Jerusalem PostThe Jerusalem PostProspect Magazine

• Likud’s reaction to the KAN News report labeled the poll-based criticism as “fake news” and affirmed confidence in winning the election.

The Jerusalem Post

• Winter’s campaign emphasized support for Netanyahu while maintaining party autonomy, aiming to attract right-wing voters without threatening the bloc’s overall seat count.

The Jerusalem Post

• Likud officials describe the rotation or presidential pathway as a “remote possibility” intended to provide a political guarantee for Eisenkot and to mitigate trust concerns from the previous rotation government.

The Jerusalem Post

• “We very much hope to pass the draft law even before the government is formed, as part of the coalition agreements,” — Guy Levy, Likud spokesman

YnetNews

• “If we need to enter a coalition, a draft law will pass before the government is formed,” — Yoav Ben Tzur, Shas lawmaker

YnetNews

• July 9, 2026 – Gadi Eisenkot attends a conference in Haifa.

The Jerusalem Post

• August 17, 2026 – Netanyahu casts his ballot at the Likud primary polling station.

The Jerusalem Post

• October 27, 2026 – Scheduled date for the national parliamentary election.

The Jerusalem Post

• Recent polls indicate Likud is down ten seats from its previous Knesset strength.

The Jerusalem Post

• People of Israel’s early polling suggests a potential five-seat gain, enough to affect the Religious Zionist Party’s threshold status.

The Jerusalem Post

Likud plans to negotiate the draft law with Shas before a coalition is formed and continues internal scenario planning for a rotation or presidential transition should the October 27 election produce a fragmented Knesset. The party’s ability to secure a “broad government” will depend on post-election seat distributions and the willingness of right-wing partners, including People of Israel, to align under Netanyahu’s leadership.

The Jerusalem Post