Fake Poll Sparks Concerns Over Election Prediction Markets

Earlier this month a 21-year-old named Rahil Prakash released a series of bogus election polls under the fictitious firm Median Strategies. The polls targeted the Los Angeles mayoral race and elections in Wisconsin and Nevada. Prakash told NPR the effort was “a short-term social experiment” to see how quickly fabricated figures would spread in news stories and on social media, and he denied any intent to profit from the stunt.

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Prediction-market platforms Kalshi and Polymarket examined Prakash’s activity after the fake polls surfaced. Both companies found no record of Prakash placing bets or trades on any of the races featured in the fabricated polls. Kalshi’s internal review also showed that the markets barely reacted when the bogus Los Angeles poll was cited by media outlets and the Bass campaign. A source close to Polymarket indicated that Prakash does not appear to have an account on the U.S. Polymarket app, which requires identity verification, and officials are still checking the cryptocurrency-based overseas platform for any anonymous activity.

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Kalshi issued a statement that the fake polls illustrate why election markets can act as a “filter for misinformation,” noting that traders lose money if they act on false information. The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and the U.S. Department of Justice did not return requests for comment, and the California Attorney General’s Office declined to comment.

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• “These markets are very easily manipulated, and the platforms say they invest in surveillance and catch people after the fact, but when it comes to elections, the consequences are really grave,” — Amanda Fischer, a former chief of staff at the Securities and Exchange Commission

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• “No bets or trades were placed on prediction or betting markets related to any of the races for which Median Strategies published polling,” — Rahil Prakash

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• “It appears that there really aren't any predictions here, they're just reacting belatedly to public information, like polls and news stories,” — Eddie Vale, a Democratic strategist in Washington

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• “Fake polling is a poignant example of why election markets are so important: they're a filter for misinformation,” — Kalshi

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