Full Breakdown
Gulf Oil Exports Rebound to About Two-Thirds of Pre-War Levels
8/28/2026, 9:22:23 PM
Export Volumes Rise Toward Pre-Conflict Levels
Oil shipments from the Persian Gulf have climbed to roughly 15 million–16 million barrels per day, representing about two-thirds of the volumes recorded before the Iran-U.S. conflict began. The increase is driven largely by higher traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, where flows are now estimated near the 8 million–10 million barrel-per-day range cited by U.S. officials.
Background & Context
During March, intensified military activity and threats to commercial vessels pushed Hormuz transits down to 5 million–6 million barrels per day, creating a sharp supply shock. Since then, producers and shippers have adapted by employing “dark” tankers that switch off satellite transponders and by increasing ship-to-ship transfers, allowing exports to recover despite ongoing geopolitical tension.
Data & Statistics
- Total Gulf crude and product exports: 15 – 16 million barrels per day.
- Pre-war export level: roughly 22 – 24 million barrels per day (7 – 8 million barrels lower now).
- March trough: 5 – 6 million barrels per day.
- U.S. estimate for Hormuz-only flows: 8 – 10 million barrels per day.
- Global crude price trend: Brent fell from above $120 in April to around $89 per barrel.
Official Statements & Responses
U.S. officials have reiterated their estimate of 8 – 10 million barrels per day moving through the strait, while Iranian security official Mohsen Rezaei indicated that ending the regional conflict remains a Tehran priority and that talks with Oman include plans for a joint shipping corridor.
Verbatim Quotes
- “The rise in dark crossings by specialized shippers, and in ship-to-ship transfers shows that producers and shippers are adapting to the Mideast conflict,” — Goldman “The rise in dark crossings by specialized shippers, and in ship-to-ship transfers shows that producers and shippers are adapting to the Mideast conflict,” — Goldman
- “We continue to see greater price upside to European natural gas prices and deferred oil product prices in persistent disruption scenarios than for crude,” — Goldman “We continue to see greater price upside to European natural gas prices and deferred oil product prices in persistent disruption scenarios than for crude,” — Goldman
