Iowa’s Open Senate and Governor Races Tighten in New Suffolk University Poll

A Suffolk University poll of 500 likely Iowa voters conducted August 20-23 shows both statewide contests within the 4.4-point margin of error. In the U.S. Senate race, Republican Rep. Ashley Hinson leads Democratic state Rep. Josh Turek 45 % to 41 %. In the gubernatorial race, Democratic State Auditor Rob Sand leads Republican businessman Zach Lahn 48 % to 44 %, with 9 % undecided.

USA Today

Iowa has voted for the Republican presidential nominee in the past three elections, with former President Donald Trump winning by more than 13 points in 2024. Democrats have not won a gubernatorial race since 2006 or held a Senate seat since 2008. The open Senate seat is being vacated by retiring Sen. Joni Ernst (R-Iowa). The Cook Political Report recently shifted the governor’s race to “lean Democrat” and the Senate race to “toss-up.”

Forbes

• Poll results (Suffolk, Aug 20-23): Hinson 45 % vs Turek 41 %; Sand 48 % vs Lahn 44 %; 13 % undecided in Senate, 9 % in governor’s race.

Newsweek

• Fundraising: Turek’s campaign reported $2.3 million on hand versus Hinson’s roughly $30,500 (FEC).

The Hill

• Prediction markets: Kalshi gives Republicans a 71 % chance to keep the governor’s office; Polymarket and Kalshi place Hinson at roughly 55-60 % probability of winning the Senate seat.

Newsweek

Dan Capodilupo, communications director for Lahn’s campaign, called Sand’s lead a product of “millions spent” that have “gone backwards in the polls,” accusing Sand of supporting “amnesty for illegal immigrants” and “AOC’s Green New Deal.” Iowa Democratic Party spokesperson Terra Hernandez warned that Lahn’s “Kansas carpetbagger” status and “part-time governor” claim are “completely disqualifying.”

Newsweek

• Capodilupo frames Sand as a “tax and spend liberal” whose positions alienate voters.

Newsweek

• Hernandez emphasizes Lahn’s residency, portraying him as out-of-touch.

Newsweek

• Aaron Lehman, president of the Iowa Farmers Union, has called recent tariff policies “a stupid policy,” underscoring economic anxieties.

Newsweek

• “In the Senate race we have Republican [Ashley] Hinson winning by four points, fairly low undecided and then on the flip side for governor we have Democrat Rob Sand leading his race by four points with a low undecided as well. So a little bit of ticket splitting from what we can see,” — David Paleologos, director of the Suffolk University Political Research Center

KGAN Cedar Rapids News

• “These races are within the statistical margin of error,” — David Paleologos, director of the Suffolk University Political Research Center

Newsweek

A Fox News poll in late June gave Hinson a 48-44 advantage, while an Emerson College poll in early August showed Sand ahead 48-43 over Lahn. Internal Democratic polls indicated a near tie in the Senate race. Prediction-market odds also vary, and no source provides definitive voter-turnout projections, leaving the impact of independent and low-motivation voters uncertain.

Newsweek

Iowa’s general election is scheduled for November 3. Both parties are expected to increase outside spending in the final weeks, and analysts will watch whether the state’s “ruby-red” baseline holds or shifts amid the tight margins revealed by the latest poll.

KGAN Cedar Rapids News