Full Breakdown
Texas Senate Race Heats Up: Talarico vs. Paxton
8/29/2026, 12:19:42 AM
Background & Context
The 2026 U.S. Senate contest in Texas pits Democratic state Rep. James Talarico against Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton. Paxton, who survived a 2023 impeachment by the Republican-controlled Texas Senate and faced a 2015 securities-fraud indictment that was later dismissed, has been a focal point of ethics controversies. Talarico, seeking the first statewide Democratic victory in Texas since 1994, has centered his campaign on exposing Paxton’s legal history and on policy proposals such as breaking up large healthcare conglomerates.
Recent Campaign Moves
- Fundraising: A private Republican National Committee fundraiser in Houston attracted donors paying $10,000 per couple, with some contributions exceeding $400,000. The event was attended by former President Donald Trump, who signaled an active role in Paxton’s campaign.
- Legal Strategy: Talarico’s campaign filed a motion in Collin County court to unseal two depositions (2019 and 2022) in which Paxton testified during a civil securities dispute involving Unity Resources.
- Policy Initiative: Talarico announced a partnership with entrepreneur Mark Cuban to launch a plan aimed at dismantling “Big Medicine” monopolies, lowering prescription-drug costs, and returning prescribing authority to physicians.
- Fundraising Tour: The candidate traveled to Los Angeles for a high-priced fundraiser hosted by TV-showrunner Damon Lindelof and his wife, with tickets ranging from $500 to $13,500.
Polling Landscape
Multiple recent surveys show a narrow lead for Talarico, though the margins differ:
| Source | Poll Dates | Talarico | Paxton | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Texas Public Opinion Research (survey of 1,000 likely voters Aug 21-23) | Aug 21-23 | 48 % | 42 % | 3.3 pp error |
| Texas Politics Project (survey of 1,200 registered voters) | recent | 42 % | 39 % | 2.83 pp error |
| Texas Politics Project (June poll) | June | 42 % | 43 % | within error |
The polls show Talarico leading among independents, Black, Latino, younger, college-educated, and female voters, while Paxton retains an advantage with white voters and those 55 years and older.
Official Statements & Responses
- The former president pledged to devote significant time to Texas and to assist Paxton’s campaign.
- Governor Greg Abbott cautioned that August polling does not determine the November outcome.
- Talarico’s campaign framed the deposition request as a transparency measure, arguing that voters deserve to see what Paxton said under oath.
Criticism & Opposition
Maddux’s response represents the primary organized opposition to Talarico’s legal maneuver. He characterized the motion to unseal the depositions as a tactic to deflect attention from Talarico’s own controversies and accused the candidate of “lying at every turn.”
Conflicting Reports & Gaps
The polling data present divergent leads for Talarico, ranging from a 6-point advantage (48 %–42 %) to a 3-point edge (42 %–39 %). Both surveys share overlapping margins of error, leaving the precise state of the race indeterminate. While the depositions have been reported as sealed since 2019, the exact content of Paxton’s testimony remains undisclosed, creating a gap in public knowledge about the alleged attorney-client privilege breach.
What’s Next
The court will decide whether to unseal the Paxton depositions in the coming weeks. Both campaigns are expected to intensify fundraising efforts ahead of the election, with additional high-profile events slated in Texas and out-of-state locations. The Senate race remains a focal point for national parties, as control of the chamber hinges on outcomes in Texas and other battleground states.
