Polymarket Pulls Prediction Market on Patrick Mahomes’ Week 1 Return

Polymarket US announced that it withdrew a proposed prediction market asking whether quarterback Patrick Mahomes would play in the Kansas City Chiefs’ Week 1 regular-season game. The company had self-certified the market one day earlier but removed the filing after receiving guidance from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). A Polymarket source told ESPN that the CFTC asked Polymarket and other operators to eliminate contracts tied to NFL player availability.

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The CFTC has been contacting prominent prediction-market platforms about the propriety of offering trades on NFL injuries and officiating. According to a source familiar with the discussions, at least one other operator received similar direction. The agency has not publicly commented on the specific request. Prediction markets more broadly face legal challenges in multiple states over whether their products constitute gambling or regulated financial swaps.

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The league has formally objected to markets that could be linked to injuries or officiating outcomes. In written correspondence with the CFTC, the NFL described the Mahomes market as “injury-related.” Jeff Miller, executive vice president of public affairs for the NFL, said the league hopes for a future framework that would allow it to review market viability before they are posted. He emphasized that, without a formal relationship, the NFL can only voice concerns.

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Despite Polymarket’s withdrawal, rival platform Kalshi continues to list a market on whether Mahomes will start the season opener against the Denver Broncos, along with other contracts concerning injured players’ return dates. Kalshi declined to comment on any CFTC guidance it may have received.

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• “We hope to get to the place where we have a very efficient system someday if they're legalized in that same way that we can protect the integrity of the competition perfectly,” — Jeff Miller, executive vice president of public affairs for the NFL

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