Labour’s Poll Surge Puts It Ahead of Reform UK as New “Restore” Party Eats Into Farage’s Base

A recent BMG Research poll commissioned by *The i Paper* shows Prime Minister Andy Burnham’s Labour Party holding a four-point lead over Nigel Farage’s Reform UK, with Labour at 27 % and Reform at 23 %. The same survey indicates that the Conservatives are in third place at 18 %. Burnham’s personal approval has risen to +6 %, the highest net rating for a UK prime minister since Boris Johnson, while Farage sits at –20 %.

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The poll also tracks issue-specific trust: Labour leads on the economy (24 % versus the Conservatives’ 16 %) and on cost-of-living measures, with trust in Labour on that issue rising to 25 % – its highest since October 2024. On immigration, Labour (20 %) is closing the gap to Reform (24 %), cutting Farage’s lead to four points.

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A new right-wing party, Restore, founded by Rupert Lowe, is attracting about 5 % of voters – roughly 1.5 million people – according to BMG’s head of public perceptions, Robert Struthers. Struthers notes that Restore is “splintering the voters” who might otherwise have supported Reform, with one-in-ten Reform voters now saying they would back Restore. He cautions that Restore’s untested nature means its vote could be squeezed in a future election, but its emergence currently poses a “major headache” for Farage’s party.

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• “The right, by contrast, is ever more fractured. This month, for the first time, we included a prompt for Restore, and they are backed by a solid 5 per cent, suggesting around 1.5 million voters would cast a ballot for Rupert Lowe’s outfit if an election were held tomorrow.” — Robert Struthers, head of public perceptions at BMG

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These figures suggest that Burnham’s early cost-of-living policies are translating into measurable polling gains, while the fragmentation of the right-wing vote may further erode Reform’s standing ahead of the upcoming October budget.

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