Full Breakdown
One Nation Wins Secret Harbour: First WA Lower-House Seat Marks a Turning Point
8/30/2026, 11:10:25 AM
Core Event
On August 30 2026, One Nation candidate Luke Herdegen secured the Secret Harbour seat in the Western Australian Legislative Assembly, defeating Labor’s Georgia Tree. The two-candidate-preferred result was 57 % to 43 % in Herdegen’s favour, ending a Labor hold on the electorate that had existed in various forms since 1989. The win gives One Nation its first lower-house seat in WA and follows its earlier federal breakthrough in the May 9 2026 Farrer by-election.
Background & Context
One Nation, founded in 1997 and led by Senator Pauline Hanson, had long been a fringe party. A surge in national opinion polls in June 2026 saw it overtake Labor for the first time. The Secret Harbour by-election was triggered by the July resignation of senior Labor minister Paul Papalia for family-health reasons. The seat, a beach-side outer-suburban electorate south of Perth, had been regarded as a safe Labor stronghold with an 11.5-point margin at the 2025 state election.
Data & Statistics
- Primary vote: Herdegen ? 39 % (ABC’s Casey Briggs 39.08 %).
- Labor primary: ? 24 % (ABC 24.4 %).
- Liberal primary: ? 17 % (ABC 17.3 %).
- Two-candidate-preferred: 57 % to 43 % after preferences (Reuters, ABC).
- Swing: More than 30 percentage points from One Nation’s 8.4 % in the 2025 election.
- Count: 75 % complete by August 29; final result pending postal votes due by September 3 2026.
Why It Matters / Impact
The result shows One Nation’s ability to turn rising poll numbers into a parliamentary seat, challenging the two-party dominance in outer-suburban, working-class electorates. Analysts note the swing came largely from former Labor voters, suggesting a realignment that could affect upcoming state contests in Victoria and New South Wales, as well as the federal seat of Canning, which overlaps Secret Harbour.
Official Statements & Responses
- The Western Australian Electoral Commission said the current figures are indicative and the full count, including postal votes, will be completed by September 3 2026.
Criticism & Opposition
Federal Liberal MP Andrew Hastie criticised WA Liberal leader Basil Zempilas for suggesting a Labor defeat would benefit the Liberals, arguing that One Nation’s surge threatens both major parties.
On-the-Ground Reports
- Les Scard, a retiree, praised Herdegen’s campaign as “pretty strong.”
- Fabian Portese, a long-time Labor supporter, said he felt “let down” and hoped the party would “listen more to the community.”
Conflicting Reports & Gaps
Sources differ slightly on primary-vote percentages: ABC’s Casey Briggs gave Herdegen 39.08 % while Watoday reported a rounded 39 %. Two-candidate-preferred margins are quoted as 57 %–43 % (Reuters, ABC) and as a 3.9 % margin after preferences. The final certified result will await postal votes.
Verbatim Quotes
- “There are no safe Labor seats in this state or in this country any more,” — Luke Herdegen
- “The result in Secret Harbour should be a warning to Labor, we’re coming for more of your seats,” — Pauline Hanson
What’s Next
- The Electoral Commission will finalize the count with postal votes by September 3 2026.
- One Nation will target additional outer-suburban seats in the Victorian (Nov 2026) and New South Wales (Mar 2027) elections.
- Federal Liberal MP Andrew Hastie has identified the Secret Harbour area, within his Canning electorate, as a potential One Nation target for the next federal election.
The Secret Harbour by-election serves as a litmus test for One Nation’s capacity to move from protest voting to parliamentary representation, with implications for the broader Australian political landscape.
