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Cook Political Report Upgrades Texas Senate Race to Toss-Up

8/30/2026

Center

Trump Backs Paxton

U.S. President Donald Trump visited Houston, Texas, on Aug. 27-28, 2026, to attend an RNC fundraiser for Ken Paxton and honor the Artemis II crew.
The trip highlighted Paxton’s fundraising shortfall and poll lag, leading the Cook Political Report to upgrade the Senate race to a toss-up.
Trump pledged personal assistance to Paxton and extensive campaigning across Texas.
RealClearPolitics poll places Talarico six points ahead of Paxton.

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Trump Visits Texas

U.S. President Donald Trump visited Houston, Texas, on Aug. 27-28, 2026, to attend an RNC fundraiser for Ken Paxton and honor the Artemis II crew.
The trip underscored Paxton’s corruption scandals and the suspension of roughly 1.2 million Texas voter registrations, sparking election-fairness concerns.
Senate leaders warned Trump a Paxton win would require party to fund an expensive campaign.
MAGA Inc. has not disclosed spending plans for the Texas race, leaving GOP officials uncertain.

History

Historical Context

In November 1994, Newt Gingrich led the Republican Revolution, giving the GOP its first simultaneous control of the House and Senate in 40 years and electing George W. Bush as Texas governor. That breakthrough established a pattern of heavy national fundraising for Texas races, a strategy echoed in Donald Trump’s 2026 Houston rally for Ken Paxton.

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Trump Backs Paxton

U.S. President Donald Trump visited Houston, Texas, on Aug. 27-28, 2026, to attend an RNC fundraiser for Ken Paxton and honor the Artemis II crew.
The trip highlighted Paxton’s fundraising shortfall and poll lag, leading the Cook Political Report to upgrade the Senate race to a toss-up.
Trump pledged personal assistance to Paxton and extensive campaigning across Texas.
RealClearPolitics poll places Talarico six points ahead of Paxton.

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