Republicans Confront Historic Midterm Losses as Trump’s Approval Plummets

Two months before the midterm elections, RealClearPolitics’ Senate poll aggregate shows the Republican Party trailing in eight battleground contests—North Carolina (-8 pts), Georgia (-7.5 pts), Ohio (-2.6 pts), Maine (-2.3 pts), Texas (-1.9 pts), Alaska (-2 pts), New Hampshire (-2 pts) and Michigan (-1.8 pts). The GOP also holds a slim House majority (218-212) that analysts say is at risk as President Donald Trump’s job-approval has fallen below 40 percent, with criticism of his handling of the Iran war and trade disputes.

The Independent

Midterm cycles traditionally penalize the president’s party. With Trump seeking a second term, Republicans face a “historic” loss narrative voiced by GOP strategist Terry Holt, who warned that “the question is whether some of these races can be saved with some miraculous turnout that apparently is going to be very expensive or whether … the mood in this country can be changed fundamentally.” Renewed trade tensions with Canada and the ongoing Iran conflict have pushed up diesel, fertilizer and gasoline prices, heightening voter concerns about cost of living.

The Independent

• RealClearPolitics Senate aggregate: GOP down 2–8 points in the eight races.

New York Post

• CNN poll (July 2026) – Republican Party image 21 pts underwater; 52 % unfavorable, 31 % favorable. Trump approval 32 % (66 % disapprove).

CNN

• Reuters/Ipsos (July 2026) – GOP unfavorable 60 % vs. 40 % favorable; Trump disapproval 65 % (34 % approve).

Forbes

• Forbes (July 8 2026) – Trump net approval –20.6 % (38 % approve, 58 % disapprove).

Forbes

• University of Massachusetts Amherst (July 2026) – 63 % disapprove of congressional Republicans, 60 % disapprove of Trump.

CNN

The Republican National Committee announced a two-day midterm convention in Dallas on Sept. 9-10, billed as a “pep rally” to boost turnout; the event will feature President Trump and Vice President JD Vance as keynote speakers.

The Hill

Polls differ on the magnitude of Republican unpopularity. CNN’s July survey places GOP favorability 21 points underwater, while Reuters/Ipsos reports a 20-point gap. Both outlets agree Trump’s disapproval exceeds 60 %, but exact figures vary (32 % approval vs. 34 % in CNN; 33 % in Reuters/Ipsos). No source provides a definitive projection of turnout, leaving the impact of the Dallas convention uncertain.

Forbes

• “The question is whether some of these races can be saved with some miraculous turnout that apparently is going to be very expensive or whether or not the mood in this country can be changed fundamentally,” — Terry Holt, GOP strategist

The Independent

• “Trump’s popularity is down below 40% in pretty much every poll now, and even in the low 30s or high 20s in some polls, and the Iran war is not even popular with Republicans, which has led to higher gas prices and his tariffs have led to inflation,” — Robert Speel

GOP path to retaining House majority narrowing as midterms near

• Sept. 9-10: RNC’s first-ever midterm convention in Dallas, with Trump and Vance delivering keynote addresses.

CBS News

• Election day: Voters will elect all 435 House members and the remaining Senate seats, determining control of both chambers.

The Record (New Jersey)

• Post-election: If Democrats capture the House, they could launch impeachment investigations; a Senate majority would be required for conviction.

The Record (New Jersey)

The convergence of low presidential approval, contentious trade and foreign-policy decisions, and tight Senate margins makes the 2026 midterms a pivotal test for the Republican Party’s ability to retain congressional power.

The Record (New Jersey)