Full Breakdown
Economic Winners and Losers of the U.S.–Israel War on Iran
9/1/2026, 6:01:39 AM
Winners
Oil and Energy Companies – The Strait of Hormuz shutdown lifted crude prices, boosting earnings for major producers. ExxonMobil posted a $14.5 billion Q2 profit, Chevron $12 billion, TotalEnergies $6 billion, and Shell and BP more than doubled year-on-year earnings. Saudi Aramco reported a $33.4 billion profit, while ADNOC saw a 52 percent profit drop to $665 million.
Defence Firms – U.S. weapons contracts have surged. On August 17 the Pentagon sealed a $22.9 billion agreement with RTX to increase Tomahawk cruise-missile production and a $59 billion deal with Lockheed Martin that triples Patriot interceptor output. Lockheed’s share price is up about 14 percent; the sector overall benefits from heightened demand for missile-defence and counter-drone systems.
Banks – Volatile markets have driven record trading revenue. The “Big Four” U.S. banks—JPMorgan, Bank of America, Citigroup and Wells Fargo—combined for a $42.5 billion Q2 profit. HSBC saw net profit jump 60 percent to $10.1 billion, and Société Générale rose 23 percent to $2.04 billion.
Renewables and Coal – Rising fossil-fuel prices have accelerated clean-energy commitments in at least 26 countries, while coal producer Thungela Resources doubled half-year earnings, reporting 4.80 rand per share versus 1.92 rand a year earlier. Coal prices rose to $131.85 per tonne in July, prompting several Asian nations to expand coal-fired generation.
Losers
U.S. Taxpayers – Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth told Congress the war’s cost to date is $37.5 billion, excluding long-term expenses such as infrastructure repairs and veteran care.
Airlines – Iranian missile and drone attacks forced the cancellation or diversion of tens of thousands of flights. IATA estimates a $4.3 billion loss for Middle-East carriers, while Air New Zealand posted a $200 million loss for the year ending June 30.
Carmakers – Higher material costs have hit auto manufacturers. Toyota’s global sales fell almost 5 percent in July, its sixth consecutive month of decline, after warning that the conflict could cost $4.3 billion. Volkswagen’s Q2 earnings dropped nearly 33 percent.
World’s Hungry – Elevated fuel and fertiliser prices have lifted food costs. The UN FAO’s food-price index rose 0.6 percent in July, its highest level since January 2023. The World Food Programme estimates an additional 7.1 million people in Somalia, Afghanistan and Sri Lanka are struggling to obtain sufficient food, while UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres warned the conflict has turned the global food supply into “collateral damage.”
Official Statements & Responses
- Pentagon Contract – The August 17 announcement of a $22.9 billion RTX deal underscores the war-driven surge in missile production.
- Cost Estimate – Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth’s congressional briefing placed the war’s expense at $37.5 billion, noting the figure reflects primarily munitions spending.
- UN Warning – Secretary-General Antonio Guterres called for an end to trade disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz and the Bab al-Mandeb Strait, citing humanitarian fallout.
- Food-Price Alert – The FAO linked the July food-price index rise to combined drought effects and higher fuel costs stemming from the Middle-East conflict.
Criticism & Opposition
Linda Bilmes, senior lecturer at Harvard Kennedy School, argued that Hegseth’s estimate omits medium- and long-term costs such as infrastructure repair and disability payments, projecting total budgetary outlays could reach $1 trillion.
