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Iran Strait Oil Flows Hit Two-Thirds Pre-War Levels

9/1/2026

Summary

Oil Recovers in Hormuz

Oil flows through Iran's Strait of Hormuz recovered to roughly two-thirds of pre-war levels.
Goldman Sachs analysts estimate total crude and product exports at 15-16 million barrels per day, 7-8 million bpd below pre-war.
Kpler data show an average of 8.6 million barrels per day transiting the strait, including dark shipments.
Analysts say rising dark-fleet activity and ship-to-ship transfers indicate producers adapting to regional security tensions.

Summary

Trump Extends Blockade

President Donald Trump said the U.S. naval blockade of Iranian ports will continue with no set timeline.
U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright stated the United States is playing a long-term game with Iran, not de-escalating.
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced a campaign targeting Iran’s digital, technology, gold, aviation, and shipping lifelines.
OPEC+ members approved a September output increase of 188,000 barrels per day, restoring the 1.65 million-bpd cut.

History

Historical Context

After the United States withdrew from the JCPOA in May 2018, it launched a “maximum pressure” campaign that re-imposed all 2015 sanctions in November 2018 and froze $2 billion of Iranian oil revenue in 2019, cutting the Central Bank’s foreign-exchange reserves by roughly 30 percent. The move built on decades of U.S. sanctions and now coincides with OPEC+ adding 188,000 bpd to offset supply shocks.

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Oil Recovers in Hormuz

Oil flows through Iran's Strait of Hormuz recovered to roughly two-thirds of pre-war levels.
Goldman Sachs analysts estimate total crude and product exports at 15-16 million barrels per day, 7-8 million bpd below pre-war.
Kpler data show an average of 8.6 million barrels per day transiting the strait, including dark shipments.
Analysts say rising dark-fleet activity and ship-to-ship transfers indicate producers adapting to regional security tensions.

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